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What is constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI)?
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Understanding Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI)
Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) allows an investor to maintain exposure to the upside potential of a risky asset while offering a capital guarantee against downside risk. The result of the CPPI strategy is somewhat similar to buying a call option, but it does not use option contracts. Therefore, CPPI is sometimes referred to as a convex strategy, as opposed to a "concave strategy" as a constant mix. Financial institutions sell CPPI products on a variety of risk assets, including stocks and credit default swaps.
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KEY TIPS
CPPI is a strategy to combine the advantage of exposure to the equity market with investments in a conservative financial instrument. This is done by assigning a specifically calculated investment percentage to a risk account.
A multiplier is used to determine the amount of risk an investor is willing to take.
Investors can rebalance their positions on a monthly or quarterly basis.
How Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) Works
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The investor will make an initial investment in the risk asset equal to the value of: (Multiplier) x (value of the cushion in dollars) and will invest the rest in the conservative asset. The value of the multiplier is based on the investor's risk profile and is obtained by first asking what the maximum loss in a day of the risk investment could be. The multiplier will be the inverse of that percentage. As the value of the portfolio changes over time, the investor will rebalance according to the same strategy.
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CPPI consists of two accounts: a risk account and a security account. As their names indicate, both accounts serve specific purposes in an individual's overall investment strategy. The risk account is leveraged with futures holdings to hedge against the downside of significant exposure to equities. The funds are dynamically transferred between the two accounts based on the economic environment.
The schedule for rebalancing is up to the investor, with monthly or quarterly examples being frequently cited. Typically, CPPI is implemented over five-year periods. Ideally, the value of the cushion will grow over time, allowing more money to flow into the risk asset. However, if the buffer falls, the investor may need to sell a portion of the risk asset to keep the asset allocation targets intact.
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One of the problems with implementing a CPPI strategy is that you do not immediately "de-risk" your holdings when markets move in the opposite direction. A hypothetical CPPI strategy on a five-year investment time horizon would have underperformed the S&P 500 for several years after the 2008 financial crisis.
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CPPI example
Consider a hypothetical portfolio of $ 100,000, of which the investor decides that $ 90,000 is the absolute floor. If the portfolio falls to $ 90,000 in value, the investor would move all assets to cash to preserve capital.
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If one decides that 20 percent is the maximum chance of "falling", the value of the multiplier will be (1 / 0.20), or 5. Multiplier values between 3 and 6 are very common. Based on the information provided, the investor would allocate 5 x ($ 100,000 - $ 90,000) or $ 50,000 to the risk asset, with the remainder going to the cash or conservative asset. -
Definitions of diversification and asset allocation strategies
Although the assumptions of modern portfolio theory are likely somewhat flawed, asset allocation using MPT is still a proven method to reduce volatility in an investment portfolio. A simple example using separate investors can help explain the value of diversification.
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Our first investor, Investor A, has invested his entire portfolio in the shares of only one company. By comparison, Investor B’s portfolio B invested equally in the shares of 30 different companies. Investors risk that the entire stock market will decline and adversely affect their portfolios. However, Investor A also has risks associated with one company that owns its shares. If something specific happens to that company (i.e. profits disappointment, product recall, investor fraud, etc.), Investor A may lose a large portion of his investment. On the other hand, if this same scenario occurs for one of the thirty stocks in Investor B's portfolio, it will not be devastating to the entire portfolio value. In the worst-case scenario, investor A could lose his investment entirely if the company goes out of business. Investor B will only lose 1/30 of its portfolio.
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The previous example identifies two different types of risks associated with investing in financial markets. The first type of risk is the risk associated with the entire market or systemic risk. Regular risk affects all stocks in the entire market together, as a whole, and cannot be diversified away within that market. For example, if the entire US economy is weakening, it will affect all stocks within the S&P 500 to some extent. Diversifying your portfolio with other stocks within the S&P 500 will not reduce the overall risk in the portfolio significantly since other stocks share the same equity characteristics.
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Another type of risk is the risk that is specifically related to individual security, or irregular risks. Asymmetric risks can be diversified easily, as seen in the previous example of diversification. If one invested equally among the shares of thirty different companies, and one of those companies went completely out of business, the loss in the total portfolio would be only 3.3%.
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Asset allocation strategies
Asset allocation to portfolio management can be applied in different ways. Most asset allocation techniques fall into two distinct strategies - strategic asset allocation and tactical asset allocation.
Strategic asset allocation is a more traditional approach to asset allocation that uses the principles and assumptions of modern portfolio theory in a passive investment style. The goal of allocating strategic assets is to create a portfolio that is based on investment objectives and carries risks for the investor. Usually changes in the investment portfolio are made only when the portfolio becomes "unbalanced" due to market fluctuations, or the risk / return profile of the changes the investor requires, requiring an adjustment in the allocation.
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Making changes to the portfolio when it becomes "unbalanced" is in line with the "value investing" philosophy that chooses investments because of its perceived lower value against an estimated substantial value. For example, if the allocation of international shares to the portfolio is less than the performance of allocating local shares, over time, the international allocation will form a smaller portion of the total portfolio, given that there are fewer unrealized gains that contribute to total investment in dollars. To reallocate the portfolio and return to the original asset mix ratios, one may need to sell some local shares and buy more international stocks. This is in line with the value investment, because you will buy unfavorable shares (perhaps undervalued) while selling the shares that are in favor (perhaps overvalued).
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Tactical asset allocation is similar to strategic asset allocation, with some noteworthy differences. Like strategic asset allocation, the allocation of tactical assets depends on the assumptions of modern portfolio theory. However, unlike strategic asset allocation, it uses a more active investment approach that includes concepts of relative strength, sector rotation, and momentum. Rather than reallocating the portfolio when it becomes unbalanced due to market fluctuations, the allocation deliberately increases its weight in market sectors that outperform the market as a whole.
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The strategy of allocating tactical assets differs from investing value in it. Instead of buying shares with poor performance, one buys or adds to positions that outperform the broad market. Therefore, in a tactically dedicated portfolio based on relative strength, one can largely concentrate in specific market segments. The idea behind this type of asset allocation is to remain somewhat diversified, but to focus more portfolio in areas of the economy that are improving. Research studies have shown that when one sector of the economy outperforms the market in general, there is a tendency for this sector to outperform for a long period of time.
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The following graph shows the performance of the nine ETFs (representing the nine sectors of the S&P 500) compared to the performance of the S&P 500 over a period of one year. As can be seen from the graph, the three highest performing sectors are consumer goods, healthcare and utilities. The two worst performing sectors are basic materials and energy, where energy is the weakest sector. An investor can use this information by using a tactical asset allocation strategy to choose investments that outperform the broader market and avoid investments that are not performing well in the broader market.
Asset allocation limits
Even with all the benefits it provides, using asset allocation as a risk management strategy has limitations. Realizing these limitations will help investors understand when other tools can be used to reduce risk in their portfolios.
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One of the main criticisms of asset allocation is that "black swan" events (unexpected events with catastrophic consequences) appear to occur more in financial markets statistically than if markets really follow the normal distribution. If true, the use of standard deviation as a measure of risk may be misleading, and the statistical correlation between asset classes may be distorted. Also, the correlation tends to increase between asset classes during the crisis period, making asset allocation less useful as a risk management strategy specifically when it is most needed.
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Another criticism of asset allocation is that it does not inform the investor when to buy or sell the security. Buying and selling decisions are based on reallocating the portfolio (usually arbitrarily) when it appears that it needs to rebalance due to investor risk parameters, regardless of changing market conditions. Tactical asset allocation strategies can be used to address some of the timing of buying and selling decisions, which are not usually part of strategic investment decisions for asset allocation.
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Finally, asset allocation as a risk management tool does not address the risk of portfolio withdrawal. Withdrawal is defined as the minimum value for an individual investment or investment portfolio reached after a previous peak in value. During secular bears' markets, wallet withdrawals can be significant. Simply spreading a person’s investments across multiple asset classes may not provide adequate risk protection.
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GBP USD
SELL from 1.2460
Take profit 1.2300
Stop loss 1.2540
type order Market Execution is entering this trade at any price from 1.2460
technical analysis and forex signals for GBP USD
waves in the same direction will tend toward equality SO GBPUSD WILL resume bearish wave to level 1.2130
Riding Wave C in a Zigzag
Trend continues till gives a reversal signal
on hourly chart the Last wave determine the end of the pattern and Consists of zigzag that generate sell GBPUSD forex signals
reversal candlestick pattern on daily chart is shooting star
The price behavior is the result of Environmental pattern
Current surrounding Repetitive pattern is zigzag Wave C = 1.618 Wave A
History Repeats Itself that the future is just a repetition of the past
The bearish movement from level 1.3510 to level 1.1410 appeared before on price chart at 19-6-2015 and followed with bullish movement equal the current bullish movement from level 1.2240 to 1.2520 that give forex trading signals to sell GBP USD and according to this movement GBP USD will decline to 1.0580
Also The bearish movement from level 1.2650 to level 1.2240 appeared before on price chart at 9-7-2018 and followed with bullish movement equal the current bullish movement from level 1.1410 to 1.2650 that give forex trading signals to sell GBP USD so the gbp usd will decline near to level 1.1970
surrounding Repetitive pattern before this movement expanded flat Wave C = 1.618 Wave A
We expect price will repeat the same movement again and gbp usd price will go down toward 1.1970
Maybe the correction equal only one wave of previous correction
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The Fibonacci Sequence
In Liber Abaci, a problem is posed that gives rise to the sequence of numbers 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, and so on to infinity, known today as the Fibonacci sequence. The problem is this:
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How many pairs of rabbits placed in an enclosed area can be produced in a single year from one pair of rabbits if each pair gives birth to a new pair each month starting with the second month?
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In arriving at the solution, we find that each pair, including the first pair, needs a month’s time to mature, but once in production, begets a new pair each month. The number of pairs is the same at the beginning of each of the first two months, so the sequence is 1, 1. This first pair finally doubles its number during the second month, so that there are two pairs at the beginning of the third month. Of these, the older pair begets a third pair the following month so that at the beginning of the fourth month, the sequence expands 1, 1, 2, 3. Of these three, the two older pairs reproduce, but not the youngest pair, so the number of rabbit pairs expands to five. The next month, three pairs reproduce so the sequence expands to 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8 and so forth. Figure 3-1 shows the Rabbit Family Tree with the family growing with exponential acceleration. Continue the sequence for a few years and the numbers become astronomical. In 100 months, for instance, we would have to contend with 354,224,848,179,261,915,075 pairs of rabbits. The Fibonacci sequence resulting from the rabbit problem has many interesting properties and reflects an almost constant relationship among its components.
Figure 3-1
The sum of any two adjacent numbers in the sequence forms the next higher number in the sequence, viz., 1 plus 1 equals 2, 1 plus 2 equals 3, 2 plus 3 equals 5, 3 plus 5 equals 8, and so on to infinity.
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The Golden Ratio
After the first several numbers in the sequence, the ratio of any number to the next higher is approximately .618 to 1 and to the next lower number approximately 1.618 to 1. The further along the sequence, the closer the ratio approaches phi (denoted ϕ) which is an irrational number, .618034.... Between alternate numbers in the sequence, the ratio is approximately .382, whose inverse is 2.618. Refer to Figure 3-2 for a ratio table interlocking all Fibonacci numbers from 1 to 144.
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Phi is the only number that when added to 1 yields its inverse: 1 + .618 = 1 ÷ .618. This alliance of the additive and the multiplicative produces the following sequence of equations:
.6182 = 1 - .618,
.6183 = .618 - .6182,
.6184 = .6182 - .6183,
.6185 = .6183 - .6184, etc.
or alternatively,
1.6182 = 1 + 1.618,
1.6183 = 1.618 + 1.6182,
1.6184 = 1.6182 + 1.6183,
1.61855 = 1.6183 + 1.6184, etc.
Some statements of the interrelated properties of these four main ratios can be listed as follows:
1.618 - .618 = 1,
1.618 x .618 = 1,
1 - .618 = .382,
.618 x .618 = .382,
2.618 - 1.618 = 1,
2.618 x .382 = 1,
2.618 x .618 = 1.618,
1.618 x 1.618 = 2.618.
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Besides 1 and 2, any Fibonacci number multiplied by four, when added to a selected Fibonacci number, gives another Fibonacci number, so that:
Figure 3-2
3 x 4 = 12; + 1 = 13,
5 x 4 = 20; + 1 = 21,
8 x 4 = 32; + 2 = 34,
13 x 4 = 52; + 3 = 55,
21 x 4 = 84; + 5 = 89, and so on.
As the new sequence progresses, a third sequence begins in those numbers that are added to the 4x multiple. This relationship is possible because the ratio between second alternate Fibonacci numbers is 4.236, where .236 is both its inverse and its difference from the number 4. Other multiples produce different sequences, all based on Fibonacci multiples.
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We offer a partial list of additional phenomena relating to the Fibonacci sequence as follows:
1) No two consecutive Fibonacci numbers have any common factors.
2) If the terms of the Fibonacci sequence are numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, etc., we find that, except for the fourth Fibonacci number (3), each time a prime Fibonacci number (one divisible only by itself and 1) is reached, the sequence number is prime as well. Similarly, except for the fourth Fibonacci number (3), all composite sequence numbers (those divisible by at least two numbers besides themselves and 1) denote composite Fibonacci numbers, as in the table below. The converses of these phenomena are not always true.
Fibonacci: Prime vs. Composite
P P P X P P P P
1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 377 610 987
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
X C C C C C C C C
3) The sum of any ten numbers in the sequence is divisible by 11.
4) The sum of all Fibonacci numbers in the sequence up to any point, plus 1, equals the Fibonacci number two steps ahead of the last one added.
5) The sum of the squares of any consecutive sequence of Fibonacci numbers beginning at the first 1 will always equal the last number of the sequence chosen times the next higher number.
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6) The square of a Fibonacci number minus the square of the second number below it in the sequence is always a Fibonacci number.
7) The square of any Fibonacci number is equal to the number before it in the sequence multiplied by the number after it in the sequence plus or minus 1. The plus 1 and minus 1 alternate along the sequence.
8) The square of one Fibonacci number Fn plus the square of the next Fibonacci number Fn+1 equals the Fibonacci number of F2n+1. The formula Fn2 + Fn+12 = F2n+1 is applicable to right-angle triangles, for which the sum of the squares of the two shorter sides equals the square of the longest side. At right is an example, using F5, F6 and F−−√F11.
9) One formula illustrating a relationship between the two most ubiquitous irrational numbers in mathematics, pi and phi, is as follows:
Fn ≈ 100 x π2 x ϕ(15-n), where ϕ = .618..., n represents the numerical position of the term in the sequence and Fn represents the term itself. In this case, the number "1" is represented only once, so that F1 ≈ 1, F2 ≈ 2, F3 ≈ 3, F4 ≈ 5, etc.
For example, let n = 7. Then,
F7 ≈ 100 x 3.14162 x .6180339(15-7)
≈ 986.97 x .61803398
≈ 986.97 x .02129 ≈ 21.01 ≈ 21
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10) One mind stretching phenomenon, which to our knowledge has not previously been mentioned, is that the ratios between Fibonacci numbers yield numbers which very nearly are thousandths of other Fibonacci numbers, the difference being a thousandth of a third Fibonacci number, all in sequence (see ratio table, Figure 3-2). Thus, in ascending direction, identical Fibonacci numbers are related by 1.00, or .987 plus .013; adjacent Fibonacci numbers are related by 1.618, or 1.597 plus .021; alternate Fibonacci numbers are related by 2.618, or 2.584 plus .034; and so on. In the descending direction, adjacent Fibonacci numbers are related by .618, or .610 plus .008; alternate Fibonacci numbers are related by .382, or .377 plus .005; second alternates are related by .236, or .233 plus .003; third alternates are related by .146, or .144 plus .002; fourth alternates are related by .090, or .089 plus .001; fifth alternates are related by .056, or .055 plus .001; sixth through twelfth alternates are related by ratios which are themselves thousandths of Fibonacci numbers beginning with .034. It is interesting that by this analysis, the ratio then between thirteenth alternate Fibonacci numbers begins the series back at .001, one thousandth of where it began! On all counts, we truly have a creation of "like from like," of "reproduction in an endless series," revealing the properties of "the most binding of all mathematical relations," as its admirers have characterized it.
Finally, we note that (5√5 + 1)/2 = 1.618 and (5√5 - 1)/2 = .618, where 5√5 = 2.236. 5 is the most important number in the Wave Principle, and its square root is a mathematical key to phi.
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1.618 (or .618) is known as the Golden Ratio or Golden Mean. Its proportions are pleasing to the eye and ear. It appears throughout biology, music, art and architecture. William Hoffer, writing for the December 1975 Smithsonian Magazine, said:
...the proportion of .618034 to 1 is the mathematical basis for the shape of playing cards and the Parthenon, sunflowers and snail shells, Greek vases and the spiral galaxies of outer space. The Greeks based much of their art and architecture upon this proportion. They called it "the golden mean."
Fibonacci’s abracadabric rabbits pop up in the most unexpected places. The numbers are unquestionably part of a mystical natural harmony that feels good, looks good and even sounds good. Music, for example, is based on the 8-note octave. On the piano this is represented by 8 white keys, 5 black ones — 13 in all. It is no accident that the musical harmony that seems to give the ear its greatest satisfaction is the major sixth. The note E vibrates at a ratio of .62500 to the note C.* A mere .006966 away from the exact golden mean, the proportions of the major sixth set off good vibrations in the cochlea of the inner ear — an organ that just happens to be shaped in a logarithmic spiral.
The continual occurrence of Fibonacci numbers and the golden spiral in nature explains precisely why the proportion of .618034 to 1 is so pleasing in art. Man can see the image of life in art that is based on the golden mean.
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Nature uses the Golden Ratio in its most intimate building blocks and in its most advanced patterns, in forms as minuscule as microtubules in the brain and the DNA molecule (see Figure 3-9) to those as large as planetary distances and periods. It is involved in such diverse phenomena as quasi crystal arrangements, reflections of light beams on glass, the brain and nervous system, musical arrangement, and the structures of plants and animals. Science is rapidly demonstrating that there is indeed a basic proportional principle of nature. By the way, you are holding this book with two of your five appendages, which have three jointed parts, five digits at the end, and three jointed sections to each digit, a 5-3-5-3 progression that mightily suggests the Wave Principle.
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Wave Personality
The idea of wave personality is a substantial expansion of the Wave Principle. It has the advantage of bringing human behavior more personally into the equation.
free forex signals and The personality of each wave in the Elliott sequence is an integral part of the reflection of the mass psychology it embodies. The progression of mass emotions from pessimism to optimism and back again tends to follow a similar path each time around, producing similar circumstances at corresponding points in the wave structure. As the Wave Principle indicates, market history repeats but not exactly. Every wave has siblings (same-directional waves of the same degree within a larger wave) and cousins (samedegree and same-numbered waves within different larger waves) but no wave has a twin. Related waves — particularly cousins — have similar market and social characteristics. The personality of each wave type is manifest whether the wave is of Grand Supercycle degree or Subminuette. Waves’ properties not only forewarn what to expect in the next sequence but at times can help determine the market’s present location in the progression of waves, when for other reasons the count is unclear or open to differing interpretations. As waves are in the process of unfolding, there are times when several different wave counts are perfectly admissible under all known Elliott rules. It is at these junctures that a knowledge of wave personality can be invaluable. Recognizing the character of a single wave can often allow you to interpret correctly the complexities of the larger pattern. The following discussions relate to an underlying bull market picture, as illustrated in Figures 2-14 and 2-15. These observations apply in reverse when the actionary waves are downward and the reactionary waves are upward.
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1) First waves — As a rough estimate, about half of first waves are part of the "basing" process and thus tend to be heavily corrected by wave two. In contrast to the bear market rallies within the previous decline, however, this first wave rise is technically more constructive, often displaying a subtle increase in
Figure 2-14
volume and breadth. Plenty of short selling is in evidence as the majority has finally become convinced that the overall trend is down. Investors have finally gotten "one more rally to sell on," and they take advantage of it. The other fifty percent of first waves rise from either large bases formed by the previous correction, as in 1949, from downside failures, as in 1962, or from extreme compression, as in both 1962 and 1974. From such beginnings, first waves are dynamic and only moderately retraced.
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2) Second waves — Second waves often retrace so much of wave one that most of the profits gained up to that time are eroded away by the time it ends. This is especially true of call option purchases, as premiums sink drastically in the environment of 79 fear during second waves. At this point, investors are thoroughly convinced that the bear market is back to stay. Second waves often end on very low volume and volatility, indicating a drying up of selling pressure.
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3) Third waves — Third waves are wonders to behold. They are strong and broad, and the trend at this point is unmistakable. Increasingly favorable fundamentals enter the picture as confidence returns. Third waves usually generate the greatest volume and price movement and are most often the extended wave in a series. It follows, of course, that the third wave of a third wave, and so on, will be the most volatile point of strength in any wave sequence. Such points invariably produce breakouts, "continuation" gaps, volume expansions, exceptional breadth, major Dow Theory trend confirmations and runaway price movement, creating large hourly, daily, weekly, monthly or yearly gains in the market, depending on the degree of the wave. Virtually all stocks participate in third waves. Besides the personality of B waves, that of third waves produces the most valuable clues to the wave count as it unfolds.
4) Fourth waves — Fourth waves are predictable in both depth (see page 66) and form, because by alternation they should differ from the previous second wave of the same degree. More often than not they trend sideways, building the base for the final fifth wave move. Lagging stocks build their tops and begin declining during this wave, since only the strength of a third wave was able to generate any motion in them in the first place. This initial deterioration in the market sets the stage for non-confirmations and subtle signs of weakness during the fifth wave.
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5) Fifth waves — Fifth waves in stocks are always less dynamic than third waves in terms of breadth. They usually display a slower maximum speed of price change as well, although if a fifth wave is an extension, speed of price change in the third of the fifth can exceed that of the third wave. Similarly, while it is common for volume to increase through successive impulse waves at Cycle degree or larger, it usually happens in a fifth wave below Primary degree only if the fifth wave extends. Otherwise, look for lesser volume as a rule in a fifth wave as opposed to the third. Market dabblers sometimes call for "blowoffs" at the end of long trends, but the stock market has no history of reaching maximum acceleration at a peak. Even if a fifth wave extends, the fifth of the fifth will lack the dynamism that preceded it. During advancing fifth waves, optimism runs extremely high despite a narrowing of breadth. Nevertheless, market action does improve relative to prior corrective wave rallies. For example, the year-end rally in 1976 was unexciting in the Dow, but it was nevertheless a motive wave as opposed to the preceding corrective wave advances in April, July and September, which, by contrast, had even less influence on the secondary indexes and the cumulative advance-decline line. As a monument to the optimism that fifth waves can produce, the advisory services polled two weeks after the conclusion of that rally turned in the lowest percentage of "bears," 4.5%, in the history of the recorded figures despite that fifth wave’s failure to make a new high!
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6) A waves — During the A wave of a bear market, the investment world is generally convinced that this reaction is just a pullback pursuant to the next leg of advance. The public surges to the buy side despite the first really technically damaging cracks in individual stock patterns. The A wave sets the tone for the B wave to follow. A five-wave A indicates a zigzag for wave B, while a three-wave A indicates a flat or triangle.
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7) B waves — B waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators’ paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often "unconfirmed" (see Dow Theory discussion in Chapter 7) by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, "There is something wrong with this market," chances are it’s a B wave. X waves and D waves in expanding triangles, both of which are corrective wave advances, have the same characteristics. Several examples will suffice to illustrate the point.
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109 Elliott Wave Principle and Depth of Corrective Waves
No market approach other than the Wave Principle gives a satisfactory answer to the question, "How far down can a bear market be expected to go?" The primary guideline is that corrections, especially when they themselves are fourth waves, tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree, most commonly near the level of its terminus.
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Example #1: The 1929-1932 Bear Market
Our analysis of the period from 1789 to 1932 uses the chart of stock prices adjusted to constant dollars developed by Gertrude Shirk and presented in the January 1977 issue of Cycles magazine. Here we find that the 1932 Supercycle low bottomed within the area of the previous fourth wave of Cycle degree, an expanding triangle spanning the period between 1890 and 1921.(see Figure 5-4)
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Figure 5-4
Example #2: The 1942 Bear Market Low
In this case, the Cycle degree bear market from 1937 to 1942 was a zigzag that terminated within the area of the fourth Primary wave of the bull market from 1932 to 1937. (see Figure 5-5)
Figure 5-5
Example #3: The 1962 Bear Market Low
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The wave ④ plunge in 1962 brought the averages down to just above the 1956 high of the five-wave Primary sequence from 1949 to 1959. Ordinarily, the bear would have reached into the zone of wave (4), the fourth wave correction within wave ③. This narrow miss nevertheless illustrates why this guideline is not a rule. The preceding strong third wave extension and the shallow A wave and strong B wave within (4) indicated strength in the wave structure, which carried over into the moderate net depth of the correction.(see Figure 5-5)
Example #4: The 1974 Bear Market Low
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The final decline into 1974, ending the 1966-1974 Cycle degree wave IV correction of the entire wave III rise from 1942, brought the averages down to the area of the previous fourth wave of lesser degree (Primary wave ④).Again, Figure 5-5 shows what happened.
Example #5: London Gold Bear Market, 1974-1976
Here we have an illustration from another market of the tendency for a correction to terminate in the area of travel of the preceding fourth wave of one lesser degree.(see figure 6-11)
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Figure 6-11
Our analysis of small degree wave sequences over the last twenty years further validates the proposition that the usual limitation of any bear market is the travel area of the preceding fourth wave of one lesser degree, particularly when the bear market in question is itself a fourth wave. However, in a clearly reasonable modification of the guideline, it is often the case that if the first wave in a sequence extends, the correction following the fifth wave will have as a typical limit the bottom of the second wave of lesser degree. For example, the decline into March 1978 in the DJIA bottomed exactly at the low of the second wave in March 1975, which followed an extended first wave off the December 1974 low.
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On occasion, a flat correction or triangle, particularly if it follows an extension, will fail, usually by a slim margin, to reach into the fourth wave area (see Example #3). A zigzag, on occasion, will cut deeply and move down into the area of the second wave of lesser degree, although this almost exclusively occurs when the zigzag is itself a second wave. "Double bottoms" are sometimes formed in this manner.
Behavior Following Fifth Wave Extensions
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Having cumulatively observed the hourly changes in the DJIA for over twenty years, the authors are convinced that Elliott imprecisely stated some of his findings with respect to both the occurrence of extensions and the market action following an extension. The most important empirically derived rule that can be distilled from our observations of market behavior is that when the fifth wave of an advance is an extension, the ensuing correction will be sharp and find support at the level of the low of wave two of the extension. Sometimes the correction ends there, as illustrated in Figure 2-6, and sometimes only wave A ends there. Although a limited number of real life examples exist, the precision with which A waves have reversed at this level is remarkable. Figure 2-7 is an illustration showing both a zigzag and an expanded flat correction. An example involving a zigzag can be found in Figure 5-5 at the low of wave Ⓐ of II and an example involving an expanded flat can be found in Figure 2-16 at the low of wave a of A of 4. As you may be able to discern in Figure 5-5, wave a of (IV) bottoms near wave (2) of ⑤, which is an extension within the wave V from 1921 to 1929.
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Since the low of the second wave of an extension is commonly in or near the price territory of the immediately preceding fourth wave of one larger degree, this guideline implies behavior similar to that of the preceding guideline. It is notable for its precision, however. Additional value is provided by the fact that fifth wave extensions are typically followed by swift retracements. Their occurrence, then, is an advance warning of a dramatic reversal to a specific level, a powerful combination of knowledge. This guideline need not apply when the market is ending a fifth wave at more than one degree, yet the action in Figure 5-5 (see above reference) suggests that we should still view this level as at least potential or temporary support.
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63 Elliott Wave and Zigzag (5-3-5)
A single zigzag in a bull market is a simple three-wave declining pattern labeled A-B-C. The subwave sequence is 5-3-5, and the top of wave B is noticeably lower than the start of wave A, as illustrated in Figures 1-22 and 1-23.
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In a bear market, a zigzag correction takes place in the opposite direction, as shown in Figures 1-24 and 1-25. For this reason, a zigzag in a bear market is often referred to as an inverted zigzag.
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Occasionally zigzags will occur twice, or at most, three times in succession, particularly when the first zigzag falls short of a normal target. In these cases, each zigzag is separated by an intervening "three," producing what is called a double zigzag (see Figure 1-26) or triple zigzag. These formations are analogous to the extension of an impulse wave but are less common. The correction in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from July to October 1975 (see Figure 1-27) can be labeled as a double zigzag, as can the correction in the Standard and Poor’s 500 stock index from January 1977 to March 1978 (see Figure 1-28). Within impulses, second waves frequently sport zigzags, while fourth waves rarely do.
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R.N. Elliott’s original labeling of double and triple zigzags and double and triple threes (see later section) was a quick shorthand. He denoted the intervening movements as wave X, so that double corrections were labeled A-B-C-X-A-B-C. Unfortunately, this notation improperly indicated the degree of the actionary subwaves of each simple pattern. They were labeled as being only one degree less than the entire correction when in fact, they are two degrees smaller. We have eliminated this problem by introducing a useful notational device: labeling the successive actionary components of double and triple corrections as waves W, Y and Z, so that the entire pattern is counted "W-X-Y (-X-Z)." The letter W now denotes the first corrective pattern in a double or triple correction, Y the second, and Z the third of a triple. Each subwave thereof (A, B or C, as well as D or E of a triangle — see later section) is now properly seen as two degrees smaller than the entire correction. Each wave X is a reactionary wave and thus always a corrective wave, typically another zigzag.
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Figure 1-24 Figure 1-25
Flat (3-3-5)
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A flat correction differs from a zigzag in that the subwave sequence is 3-3-5, as shown in Figures 1-29 and 1-30. Since the first actionary wave, wave A, lacks sufficient downward force to unfold into a full five waves as it does in a zigzag, the B wave reaction, not surprisingly, seems to inherit this lack of countertrend pressure and terminates near the start of wave A. Wave C, in turn, generally terminates just slightly beyond the end of wave A rather than significantly beyond as in zigzags.
Figure 1-29 Figure 1-30
In a bear market, the pattern is the same but inverted, as shown in Figures 1-31 and 1-32.
A flat correction usually retraces less of the preceding impulse wave than does a zigzag. It tends to occur when the larger trend is strong, so it virtually always precedes or follows an extension. The more powerful the underlying trend, the briefer the flat tends to be. Within an impulse, the fourth wave frequently sports a flat, while the second wave rarely does.
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What might be called a "double flat" does occur. However, Elliott categorized such a formation as a "double three," a term we discuss later in this chapter.
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The word "flat" is used as a catch-all name for any A-B-C correction that subdivides 3-3-5. In Elliott literature, however, three types of 3-3-5 corrections have been named by differences in their overall shape. In a regular flat correction, wave B terminates about at the level of the beginning of wave A, and wave C terminates a slight bit past the end of wave A, as we have shown in Figures 1-29 through 1-32. Far more common, however, is the variety we call an expanded flat, which contains a price extreme beyond that of the preceding impulse wave. Elliott called this variation an "irregular" flat, although the word is inappropriate as they are actually far more common than "regular" flats.
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In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A, as shown for bull markets in Figures 1-33 and 1-34 and bear markets in Figures 1-35 and 1-36. The formation in the DJIA from August to November 1973 was an expanded flat correction in a bear market, or an "inverted expanded flat" (see Figure 1-37).
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In a rare variation on the 3-3-5 pattern, which we call a running flat, wave B terminates well beyond the beginning of wave A as in an expanded flat, but wave C fails to travel its full distance, falling short of the level at which wave A ended, as in Figures 1-38 through 1-41. Apparently in this case, the forces in the direction of the larger trend are so powerful that the pattern is skewed in that direction. The result is akin to the truncation of an impulse.
It is always important, but particularly when concluding that a running flat has taken place, that the internal subdivisions adhere to Elliott’s rules. If the supposed B wave, for instance, breaks down into five waves rather than three, it is more likely the first wave up of the impulse of next higher degree. The power of adjacent impulse waves is important in recognizing running corrections, which tend to occur only in strong and fast markets.
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We must issue a warning, however. There are hardly any examples of this type of correction in the price record. Never label a correction prematurely this way, or you’ll find yourself wrong nine times out of ten. A running triangle, in contrast, is much more common (see next section).
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structure of the Federal Reserve System
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About the Federal Reserve System
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States.
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It performs five general functions to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, the public interest. The Federal Reserve
conducts the nation's monetary policy to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy;
promotes the stability of the financial system and seeks to minimize and contain systemic risks through active monitoring and engagement in the U.S. and abroad;
promotes the safety and soundness of individual financial institutions and monitors their impact on the financial system as a whole;
fosters payment and settlement system safety and efficiency through services to the banking industry and the U.S. government that facilitate U.S.-dollar transactions and payments; and
promotes consumer protection and community development through consumer-focused supervision and examination, research and analysis of emerging consumer issues and trends, community economic development activities, and the administration of consumer laws and regulations.
Read more in the 10th edition of Federal Reserve System Purposes & Functions.
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Figure uses a pyramid of graphics to describe the Federal Reserve System. Top level: There is 1 U.S. Central Bank: the Federal Reserve System. Second level: The 3 Key Entities of the Federal Reserve System: Federal Reserve Board of Governors, 12 Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee. Third level: The 5 Key Functions of the Federal Reserve System: conducting the nation's monetary policy, helping maintain the stability of the financial system, supervising and regulating financial institutions, fostering payment and settlement system safety and efficiency, and promoting consumer protection and community development.
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The Decentralized System Structure and Its Philosophy
In establishing the Federal Reserve System, the United States was divided geographically into 12 Districts, each with a separately incorporated Reserve Bank. District boundaries were based on prevailing trade regions that existed in 1913 and related economic considerations, so they do not necessarily coincide with state lines.
Twelve Federal Reserve Districts operate independently but with supervision
Federal Reserve District boundaries are based on economic considerations; the Districts operate independently but under the supervision of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
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Federal Reserve Banks
01-Boston
02-New York
03-Philadelphia
04-Cleveland
05-Richmond
06-Atlanta
07-Chicago
08-St. Louis
09-Minneapolis
10-Kansas City
11-Dallas
12-San Francisco
Board
The Federal Reserve officially identifies Districts by number and Reserve Bank city.
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In the 12th District, the Seattle Branch serves Alaska, and the San Francisco Bank serves Hawaii. The System serves commonwealths and territories as follows: the New York Bank serves the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands; the San Francisco Bank serves American Samoa, Guam, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. The Board of Governors revised the branch boundaries of the System in February 1996.
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As originally envisioned, each of the 12 Reserve Banks was intended to operate independently from the other Reserve Banks. Variation was expected in discount rates--the interest rate that commercial banks were charged for borrowing funds from a Reserve Bank. The setting of a separately determined discount rate appropriate to each District was considered the most important tool of monetary policy at that time. The concept of national economic policymaking was not well developed, and the impact of open market operations--purchases and sales of U.S. government securities--on policymaking was less significant.
As the nation's economy became more integrated and more complex, through advances in technology, communications, transportation, and financial services, the effective conduct of monetary policy began to require increased collaboration and coordination throughout the System. This was accomplished in part through revisions to the Federal Reserve Act in 1933 and 1935 that together created the modern-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
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The Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Control Act of 1980 (Monetary Control Act) introduced an even greater degree of coordination among Reserve Banks with respect to the pricing of financial services offered to depository institutions. There has also been a trend among Reserve Banks to centralize or consolidate many of their financial services and support functions and to standardize others. Reserve Banks have become more efficient by entering into intra-System service agreements that allocate responsibilities for services and functions that are national in scope among each of the 12 Reserve Banks.
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The U.S. Approach to Central Banking
The framers of the Federal Reserve Act purposely rejected the concept of a single central bank. Instead, they provided for a central banking "system" with three salient features: (1) a central governing Board, (2) a decentralized operating structure of 12 Reserve Banks, and (3) a combination of public and private characteristics.
Although parts of the Federal Reserve System share some characteristics with private-sector entities, the Federal Reserve was established to serve the public interest.
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There are three key entities in the Federal Reserve System: the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Banks (Reserve Banks), and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board of Governors, an agency of the federal government that reports to and is directly accountable to Congress, provides general guidance for the System and oversees the 12 Reserve Banks.
Within the System, certain responsibilities are shared between the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., whose members are appointed by the President with the advice and consent of the Senate, and the Federal Reserve Banks and Branches, which constitute the System's operating presence around the country. While the Federal Reserve has frequent communication with executive branch and congressional officials, its decisions are made independently.
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The Three Key Federal Reserve Entities
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors (Board of Governors), the Federal Reserve Banks (Reserve Banks), and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) make decisions that help promote the health of the U.S. economy and the stability of the U.S. financial system.
Three key entities, serving the public interest
The framers of the Federal Reserve Act developed a central banking system that would broadly represent the public interest.
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CONGRESS graphic positioned above the three key Federal Reserve entities' graphics: 'CONGRESS oversees the Federal Reserve System and its entities.' A dotted arrow leads down to the BOARD graphic: 'BOARD OF GOVERNORS is an independent agency of the federal government.' A dotted arrow leads right from the BOARD graphic to the BANKS graphic: 'FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS are the operating arms of the Federal Reserve System and are supervised by the Board of Governors.' Dotted arrows lead left from the BOARD and BANKS graphics to the FOMC graphic: 'FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE consists of the members of the Board of Governors and Reserve Bank presidents. The Chair of the Board is the FOMC Chair.
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Other Significant Entities Contributing to Federal Reserve Functions
Two other groups play important roles in the Federal Reserve System's core functions:
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depository institutions--banks, thrifts, and credit unions; and
Federal Reserve System advisory committees, which make recommendations to the Board of Governors and to the Reserve Banks regarding the System's responsibilities.
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Depository Institutions
Depository institutions offer transaction, or checking, accounts to the public, and may maintain accounts of their own at their local Federal Reserve Banks. Depository institutions are required to meet reserve requirements--that is, to keep a certain amount of cash on hand or in an account at a Reserve Bank based on the total balances in the checking accounts they hold.
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Depository institutions that have higher balances in their Reserve Bank account than they need to meet reserve requirements may lend to other depository institutions that need those funds to satisfy their own reserve requirements. This rate influences interest rates, asset prices and wealth, exchange rates, and thereby, aggregate demand in the economy. The FOMC sets a target for the federal funds rate at its meetings and authorizes actions called open market operations to achieve that target.
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Advisory Councils
Four advisory councils assist and advise the Board on matters of public policy.
Federal Advisory Council (FAC). This council, established by the Federal Reserve Act, comprises 12 representatives of the banking industry. The FAC ordinarily meets with the Board four times a year, as required by law. Annually, each Reserve Bank chooses one person to represent its District on the FAC. FAC members customarily serve three one-year terms and elect their own officers.
Community Depository Institutions Advisory Council (CDIAC). The CDIAC was originally established by the Board of Governors to obtain information and views from thrift institutions (savings and loan institutions and mutual savings banks) and credit unions. More recently, its membership has expanded to include community banks. Like the FAC, the CDIAC provides the Board of Governors with firsthand insight and information about the economy, lending conditions, and other issues.
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Model Validation Council. This council was established by the Board of Governors in 2012 to provide expert and independent advice on its process to rigorously assess the models used in stress tests of banking institutions. Stress tests are required under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. The council is intended to improve the quality of stress tests and thereby strengthen confidence in the stress-testing program.
Community Advisory Council (CAC). This council was formed by the Federal Reserve Board in 2015 to offer diverse perspectives on the economic circumstances and financial services needs of consumers and communities, with a particular focus on the concerns of low- and moderate-income populations. The CAC complements the FAC and CDIAC, whose members represent depository institutions. The CAC meets semiannually with members of the Board of Governors. The 15 CAC members serve staggered three-year terms and are selected by the Board through a public nomination process.
Federal Reserve Banks also have their own advisory committees. Perhaps the most important of these are committees that advise the Banks on agricultural, small business, and labor matters. The Federal Reserve Board solicits the views of each of these committees biannually. More on https://www.freeforex-signals.com/ -
The Broad Concept - Elliott Wave Principle
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In The Elliott Wave Principle — A Critical Appraisal, A. Hamilton Bolton made this opening statement:
As we have advanced through some of the most unpredictable economic climate imaginable, covering depression, major war, and postwar reconstruction and boom, I have noted how well Elliott’s Wave Principle has fitted into the facts of life as they have developed, and have accordingly gained more confidence that this Principle has a good quotient of basic value.
In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that stock market prices trend and reverse in recognizable patterns. The patterns he discerned are repetitive in form but not necessarily in time or amplitude. Elliott isolated five such patterns, or "waves," that recur in market price data. He named, defined and illustrated these patterns and their variations. He then described how they link together to form larger versions of themselves, how they in turn link to form the same patterns of the next larger size, and so on, producing a structured progression. He called this phenomenon The Wave Principle.
Although it is the best Forex Signals tool in existence, the Wave Principle is not primarily a Forex Signals tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. Nevertheless, that description does impart an immense amount of knowledge about the market’s position within the behavioral continuum and therefore about its probable ensuing path. The primary value of the Wave Principle is that it provides a context for market analysis and FREE Forex Signals . This context provides both a basis for disciplined thinking and a perspective on the market’s general position and outlook. At times, its accuracy in identifying, and even anticipating, changes in direction is almost unbelievable. Many areas of mass human activity display the Wave Principle, but it is most popularly used in the stock market. Truly, however, the stock market is far more significant to the human condition than it appears to casual observers and even to those who make their living by it. The level of aggregate stock prices is a direct and immediate measure of the popular valuation of man’s total productive capability. That this valuation has form is a fact of profound implications that will ultimately revolutionize the social sciences. That, however, is a discussion for another time.
R.N. Elliott’s genius consisted of a wonderfully disciplined mental process, suited to studying charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its predecessors with such thoroughness and precision that he could construct a network of principles that reflected all market action known to him up to the mid-1940s. At that time, with the Dow near 100, Elliott predicted a great bull market for the next several decades that would exceed all expectations at a time when most investors felt it impossible that the Dow could even better its 1929 peak. As we shall see, exceptional stock market forecasts, some of pinpoint accuracy years in advance, have accompanied the history of the application of the Elliott wave approach.
Elliott had theories regarding the origin and meaning of the patterns he discovered, which we will present and expand upon in Chapter 3. Until then, suffice it to say that the patterns described in Chapters 1 and 2 have stood the test of time.
Often one will hear several different interpretations of the market’s Elliott wave status, especially when cursory, offthe- cuff studies of the averages are made by latter-day experts. However, most uncertainties can be avoided by keeping charts on both arithmetic and semilogarithmic scale and by taking care to follow the rules and guidelines as laid down in this book. Welcome to the world of Elliott.
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Leading Diagonal
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When diagonal triangles occur in the wave 5 or C position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that Elliott described. However, it has recently come to light that a variation on this pattern occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. The characteristic overlapping of waves 1 and 4 and the convergence of boundary lines into a wedge shape remain as in the ending diagonal triangle. However, the subdivisions are different, tracing out a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern. The structure of this formation (see Figure 1-20) fits the spirit of the Wave Principle in that the five-wave subdivisions in the direction of the larger trend communicate a "continuation" message as opposed to the "termination" implication of the three-wave subdivisions in the ending diagonal. Analysts must be aware of this pattern to avoid mistaking it for a far more common development, a series of first and second waves. The main key to recognizing this pattern is the decided slowing of price change in the fifth subwave relative to the third. By contrast, in developing first and second waves, short term speed typically increases, and breadth (i.e., the number of stocks or subindexes participating) often expands.
Figure 1-21 shows a real life example of a leading diagonal triangle. This pattern was not originally discovered by R.N. Elliott but has appeared enough times and over a long enough period that we are convinced of its validity. -
WAVE FUNCTION Elliott wave
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Every wave serves one of two functions: action or reaction. Specifically, a wave may either advance the cause of the wave of one larger degree or interrupt it. The function of a wave is determined by its relative direction. An actionary or trend wave is any wave that trends in the same direction as the wave of one larger degree of which it is a part. A reactionary or countertrend wave is any wave that trends in the direction opposite to that of the wave of one larger degree of which it is part. Actionary waves are labeled with odd numbers and letters. Reactionary waves are labeled with even numbers and letters.
All reactionary waves develop in corrective mode. If all actionary waves developed in motive mode, then there would be no need for different terms. Indeed, most actionary waves do subdivide into five waves. However, as the following sections reveal, a few actionary waves develop in corrective mode, i.e., they subdivide into three waves or a variation thereof. A detailed knowledge of pattern construction is required before one can draw the distinction between actionary function and motive mode, which in the underlying model introduced so far are indistinct. A thorough understanding of the forms detailed in the next five lessons will clarify why we have introduced these terms to the Elliott Wave lexicon.
Lesson 4: Motive Waves
Motive waves subdivide into five waves with certain characteristics and always move in the same direction as the trend of one larger degree. They are straightforward and relatively easy to recognize and interpret.
Within motive waves, wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1, and wave 4 never retraces more than 100% of wave 3. Wave 3, moreover, always travels beyond the end of wave 1. The goal of a motive wave is to make progress, and these rules of formation assure that it will.
Elliott further discovered that in price terms, wave 3 is often the longest and never the shortest among the three actionary waves (1, 3 and 5) of a motive wave. As long as wave 3 undergoes a greater percentage movement than either wave 1 or 5, this rule is satisfied. It almost always holds on an arithmetic basis as well. There are two types of motive waves: impulses and diagonal triangles -
Common trading mistakes: part two
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Overreliance on software
Most people use some form of technology to assist their trading.
For example, you might study chart patterns or use automated alerts and algorithms as prompts to trade.
But, as useful as all of these tools are, it is important to remember that they are only tools, and must be employed wisely.
Just as your satnav can occasionally direct you to drive into a deep torrent of water because it doesn't know the river has flooded, trading technology isn't something to follow blindly. You still need to keep your eyes open and react intelligently to the signs you see.
Car
So when using technology, such as charting software or other analysis tools, it's important that you understand the underlying concepts and the reasons behind what the charts are telling you. This will allow you to see the bigger picture and avoid unnecessary mistakes.
Lack of record keeping
Do you remember your first trade? What about the third, or the fifth?
If you're new to trading, the details may still be clear in your memory. But in a few months' time will you still be able to describe each step and decision in detail?
Unless you keep a trading log or diary, the chances are that this information will be lost. And if you can't remember what you did right, how can you replicate it? Similarly, if you don't know where you went wrong you could easily make the same mistakes again.
Your trading diary will let you look back at your experiences with the value of hindsight and learn from them. So what should you record in it?
Question
Which of the following is NOT worth putting in your trading diary?
A
Why you decided to trade
B
What you were wearing at the time
C
Where you placed your stops or limits
D
How you felt at the time you opened and closed the trade
Reveal answer
Bad timing
Timing is not only the art of good comedy - it's also central to good trading.
In the same way that a stand-up artist needs to deliver the punchline at exactly the right moment, you need to time your entry and exit from a market perfectly to maximise any profit or minimise any loss.
Timing mistakes are common among new traders. So how can you avoid them? Although getting your timing right isn't an exact science, there are a few tools that will help you to act at the right moment:
Chart analysis will help you forecast potential scenarios by revealing market patterns
A trading plan will help you to define your strategy, meaning you're more likely to avoid impulsive actions
Stops and limits will allow you to go about your business without having to monitor the markets constantly
summary
Remember the limitations of software and use it intelligently
Keep a trading diary and reflect on the strategies that have worked well (or not so well)
Use tools such as charts, stops and limits to help you get your timing right when opening and closing positions -
Controlling emotions that cloud your judgment
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Some types of emotion can affect the clarity of your thinking, and so impact any trading decisions you make.
Anger
A losing trade can make you furious - often simply with yourself, for making a bad decision.
But we all make mistakes - it's an important way to learn. If it happens to you, as it inevitably will one day, put it down to experience and make a mental note about what to do differently next time.
One common impulse in moments of anger is to try and 'get back at the market' by placing another trade. This sort of knee-jerk reaction - or 'hair-trigger trade' - is nearly always a bad idea. Alternatively, you might just start buying anything and everything indiscriminately. This is known as 'shotgun trading'.
Take a moment to sit back and breathe deeply, then consider objectively whether your proposed trade really makes sense and is in line with your overall trading strategy.
Relax
Regret
Another common source of annoyance is missing an opportunity - something that's easy to do in the fast-moving world of financial markets.
When this happens, it's easy to give yourself a hard time about it, repeating things like 'I should have bought there' or 'I knew that was going to happen'. But this sort of mentality can lure you into traps capable of undoing all your hard work at a stroke.
You might, for example, be tempted to place a belated trade anyway, or to risk placing a number of trades in quick succession - known as overtrading - to set things right. You might even 'go on tilt', a particular state of mind which means you make irrational decisions, rather than those based on the merit of what's right in front of you.
That's why, if the moment has passed, you need a few tricks to remain clear-headed until the next signal comes along.
Fortunately, those tricks are as simple as taking a break, casting an eye over your original trading plan and exercising a positive mentality - remember, missing a move is not the end of the world.
Sentimentality
Suppose you've traded gold several times, and each time you've made a healthy profit. It might be tempting to start believing (perhaps subconsciously) that 'gold is your friend', and that it will reward you in the same way every time.
Gold
Once this conviction grows, there's a danger that you'll open further positions in gold without properly considering the current situation.
Unfortunately, the fact that a particular instrument has been profitable in the past is no guarantee that it will continue to perform for you. But likewise, if you've had a bad experience with a certain asset that's no reason to shy away from any future opportunities it offers.
Stress
There are times in all of our lives when events beyond our control affect our ability to think clearly.
It could be divorce, family illness, bereavement, or just moving house or changing jobs. All of these things will distract you from trading and could cloud your judgment.
The world of financial trading can be hectic, demanding your undivided attention. So when you're going through stressful periods, it's often safest to put your trading on hold until you can commit the necessary time and energy to it again.
summary
Don't beat yourself up about poor decisions or missed opportunities. Learn from your mistakes and look forward to getting it right next time
To avoid going on tilt when things go wrong, take a break, remind yourself of your trading plan, and wait until you're back in a positive state of mind
Remember that sentimentality and superstition have no place in trading. No market is your friend or enemy, and every opportunity should be assessed on its merits
When you're suffering from stress in other areas of your life, it may be wise to put your trading on hold -
Controlling emotions that hold you back
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So far, we've explored many different aspects of the financial markets and the techniques of trading. But there's one key component that affects the success of every trade you make, and that's you.
No matter how strong or level-headed you can be, you are a human being, so you have emotions. And naturally your feelings can influence your thinking and your behaviour as a trader.
Controlling emotions
Trading is an exciting and absorbing activity that can bring you moments of euphoria when things are going well, while equally it can be psychologically tough if markets turn against you. By understanding the emotions you're likely to experience at every point in the trading process, you can mentally prepare yourself to handle them effectively. That way, your feelings won't get in the way of your decision-making or harm your potential profits.
In this course, we'll look at some of the emotions you may need to deal with when you trade.
Anxiety and doubt
It's great to be cautious and considered in your trading, but if your worries are crippling you that's counter-productive.
The transition to a live trading account after using 'play' money in a demo environment is one step that worries some traders. It's a bit like doing a parachute jump: you've learned the theory and done all the preparation, but making that leap still takes courage.
Live and demo
There are, however, things you can do to make it a little less daunting:
Reflect on the lessons you learned while using the demo account
Apply the same strategies that brought you success in demo trades
Follow a trading plan
Start by trading in small sizes until you feel comfortable
Use risk-management tools, such as stop-losses
As long as you trade sensibly, use the skills and knowledge you've already gained and keep your positions modest, there's every reason to expect success. Of course you will make mistakes - we all do - but by managing risk carefully you'll minimise your losses.
Fear of loss
Another time that you might experience fear is when a position is moving against you and you begin to see a growing loss.
Example
Imagine you've bought EUR/USD because your analysis strongly suggests it's about to rise. You've considered the risk involved and set a stop-loss.
However, as time passes the currency pair seems to be stuck in a downtrend. It hasn't hit your stop, but the rise you predicted remains elusive. You start to feel nervous: should you close the position now and cut your losses? Should you adjust your stop closer?
Before taking any action, ask yourself:
Was my original analysis flawed?
Have circumstances affecting this market changed since I opened my trade?
Did I place my stop at the wrong level?
If everything suggests your original analysis is still valid, and if you've positioned your stop correctly to protect yourself against unacceptable loss, there's no reason to alter or kill your trade. Have confidence in your original judgment and let things play out - your loss could turn into a profit.
summary
Your emotional state can have a strong influence on the bottom line of your trading, so it's important to learn how to manage your feelings
Don't allow doubts and fears to paralyse you. Markets move swiftly, and hesitation can lead to missed opportunities
By following a plan, trading in small sizes and using risk management tools, you'll feel more secure and confident in your trading decisions -
What is forex?
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What is forex?
If you've ever gone on holiday and exchanged say, pounds for euros, then you've participated in the forex market. Simply put:
Forex is how individuals and businesses convert one currency to another.
Forex
Forex, also known as foreign exchange, FX or the currency market, is the largest financial market in the world. On average over $5 trillion worth of transactions take place every day. That's around 100 times more than the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) - the world's biggest stock exchange.
As well as being traded by individuals and businesses, forex is also important for financial institutions, central banks, and governments. It facilitates international trade and investment by allowing companies that earn money in one currency to pay for goods and services in another.
Who trades forex?
There are a huge number of market participants looking to trade forex at any particular time, from individual speculators wanting to turn a quick profit, to central banks trying to control the amount of currency in circulation.
However, by far the most significant players in the forex market are the major international banks. Between them, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Barclays, JPMorgan and UBS account for around 50% of global forex trade.
Euromoney FX Survey
Why do people trade forex?
Individuals and businesses participate in the forex market for two main reasons:
Speculation
The vast majority of forex transactions are made simply to make money. This means the person or institution making the trade has no plans to take delivery of the currency, they are just looking to turn a profit on movements in the market.
With major financial institutions always looking to profit from small changes in forex prices, many large trades can occur throughout the day. This activity means currency rates are some of the most consistently volatile financial markets in the world - which in turn provides more opportunity for speculators to make money.
Purchasing goods or services in another currency
Every time a transaction is made between two entities in different regions, a foreign exchange transaction needs to take place to pay for the goods or services exchanged. Transactions such as this happen globally, every second of every day.
Despite the number of transactions, the amount of currency traded is often very small compared to trades made by large speculators. Therefore commercial trading tends not to have such a big effect on short-term market rates.
How do you trade forex?
Unlike share trading, forex is an over-the-counter (OTC) market. This means that currencies are exchanged directly between two parties rather than through an exchange.
The forex market is run electronically via a global network of banks - it has no central location, and trades can take place anywhere via a forex broker of your choice. This also means that you can trade forex at any time, so long as it's during trading hours in any one of the four major forex trading centres (London, New York, Sydney and Tokyo).
Forex trading hours: April-October (UK time)
Forex Trading Hours
In practice, that means you can trade most forex pairs from around 21:00 or 22:00 (UK time) on Sunday to 21:00 or 22:00 (UK time) on Friday, every week. The exact times can vary due to daylight saving time changes in the UK, USA and Australia.
How does a forex trade work?
Forex prices are always quoted in pairs such as AUD/EUR, which stands for the Australian dollar versus the euro. This is because if you want to purchase Australian dollars you need to buy them with another currency, like euros.
When trading forex you are simultaneously BUYING one currency while SELLING another.
Lesson summary
Forex is how individuals and businesses convert one currency to another
The main players in the market are major international banks
Speculation accounts for the vast majority of transactions
It's an over-the-counter (OTC) market, where trades take place directly between two parties rather than through an exchange
Forex is traded in pairs - you are simultaneously buying one currency while selling another
The first currency in every pair is the base or primary currency. The second is the quote or counter currency -
How to become a successful trader
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To become a successful trader, you need a clear system that helps you to stay consistent and handle negative market movements. You must also guard against becoming over-emotional. There is no magic formula to becoming a successful trader, but there are a few steps you can take to make sure you’re mastering both the basics and complexities of trading:
Do your research
Create a trading plan
Practise your trades
When you’re ready to take on the markets, you can open a live trading account.
Do your research
Improving your knowledge of financial markets is the first step to becoming a successful trader. Start by researching the different markets available to trade and to build your trading skills. Remember that you can never know too much; if you want to be a successful trader, you must always aim to improve your knowledge.
Create a trading plan
A trading plan is a blueprint for how you are going to trade. It is driven by your trading strategy, helping you to quantify your goals and motivation. Your trading plan also covers your risk management strategy and preferred analysis method.
Learn how to create a successful trading plan
Practise your trades
If you want to put your trading plan into practice, you can start trialling your trades on demo account. With a demo account, you can develop your skills without risking your capital right away. Practising your trades will also help you to refine your trading strategy and learn from any mistakes. -
Symmetrical Triangle
The symmetrical triangle, which can also be referred to as a coil, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and the symmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time.
Trend: In order to qualify as a continuation pattern, an established trend (at least a few months old) should exist. The symmetrical triangle marks a consolidation period before continuing after the breakout.
Four (4) Points: At least 2 points are required to form a trend line and 2 trend lines are required to form a symmetrical triangle. Therefore, a minimum of 4 points are required to begin considering a formation as a symmetrical triangle. The second high (2) should be lower than the first (1) and the upper line should slope down. The second low (2) should be higher than the first (1) and the lower line should slope up. Ideally, the pattern will form with 6 points (3 on each side) before a breakout occurs.
Volume: As the symmetrical triangle extends and the trading range contracts, volume should start to diminish. This refers to the quiet before the storm, or the tightening consolidation before the breakout.
Duration: The symmetrical triangle can extend for a few weeks or many months. If the pattern is less than 3 weeks, it is usually considered a pennant. Typically, the time duration is about 3 months.
Breakout Timeframe: The ideal breakout point occurs 1/2 to 3/4 of the way through the pattern's development or time-span. The time-span of the pattern can be measured from the apex (convergence of upper and lower lines) back to the beginning of the lower trend line (base). A break before the 1/2 way point might be premature and a break too close to the apex may be insignificant. After all, as the apex approaches, a breakout must occur sometime.
Breakout Direction: The future direction of the breakout can only be determined after the break has occurred. Sounds obvious enough, but attempting to guess the direction of the breakout can be dangerous. Even though a continuation pattern is supposed to breakout in the direction of the long-term trend, this is not always the case.
Breakout Confirmation: A break should be on a closing basis for it to be considered valid. Some traders apply a price (3% break) or time (sustained for 3 days) filter to confirm validity. The breakout should occur with an expansion in volume, especially on upside breakouts.
Return to Apex: After the breakout (up or down), the apex can turn into future support or resistance. The price sometimes returns to the apex or a support/resistance level around the breakout before resuming in the direction of the breakout.
Price Target: There are two methods to estimate the extent of the move after the breakout. First, the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point. Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern's trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target.
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Bump and Run Reversal
The pattern was originally named the Bump and Run Formation, or BARF. Bulkowski decided that Wall Street was not ready for such an acronym and changed the name to Bump and Run Reversal. Bulkowski identified three main phases to the pattern: lead-in, bump, and run. We will examine these phases and also look at Forex Signals volume and pattern validation.
1. Lead-in Phase: The first part of the pattern is a lead-in phase that can last 1 month or longer and forms the basis from which to draw the trend line. During this phase, prices advance in an orderly manner and there is no excess speculation. The trend line should be moderately steep. If it is too steep, then the ensuing bump is unlikely to be significant enough. If the trend line is not steep enough, then the subsequent trend line break will occur too late. Bulkowski advises that an angle of 30 to 45 degrees is preferable. The size of the angle will depend on the scaling (semi-log or arithmetic) and the size of the chart. It is probably easier to judge the soundness of the trend line with a visual assessment.
2. Bump Phase: The bump forms with a sharp advance, and prices move further away from the lead-in trend line. Ideally, the angle of the trend line from the bump's advance should be about 50% greater than the angle of the trend line extending up from the lead-in phase. Roughly speaking, this would call for an angle between 45 and 60 degrees. If it is not possible to measure the angles, then a visual assessment will suffice.
3. Bump Validity: It is important that the bump represent a speculative advance that cannot be sustained for a long time. Bulkowski developed what he calls an “arbitrary” measuring technique to validate the level of speculation in the bump. The distance from the highest high of the bump to the lead-in trend line should be at least twice the distance from the highest high in the lead-in phase to the lead-in trend line. These distances can be measured by drawing a vertical line from the highest highs to the lead-in trend line. An example is provided in the chart below.
4. Bump Rollover: After speculation dies down, prices begin to peak and a top forms. Sometimes, a small double top or a series of descending peaks forms instead. Prices begin to decline towards the lead-in trend line, and the right side of the bump forms.
5. Volume: As the stock advances during the lead-in phase, volume is usually average and sometimes low. When the speculative advance begins to form the left side of the bump, volume expands as the advance accelerates.
6. Run Phase: The run phase begins when the pattern breaks support from the lead-in trend line. Prices will sometimes hesitate or bounce off the trend line before breaking through. Once the break occurs, the run phase takes over, and the decline continues.
7. Support Turns Resistance: After the trend line is broken, there is sometimes a retracement that tests the newfound resistance level. Potential support-turned-resistance levels can also be identified from the reaction lows within the bump.
The Bump and Run Reversal pattern can be applied to Forex Signals daily, weekly or monthly charts. As stated above, the pattern is designed to identify speculative advances that are unsustainable for a long period. Because prices rise very fast to form the left side of the bump, the subsequent decline can be just as ferocious.
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The Rounding Bottom
The Rounding Bottom is a long-term reversal pattern that is best suited for weekly charts. It is also referred to as a saucer bottom, and represents a long consolidation period that turns from a bearish bias to a bullish bias.
Prior Trend: In order to be a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. Ideally, the low of a rounding bottom will mark a new low or reaction low. In practice, there are occasions when the low is recorded many months earlier and the security trades flat before forming the pattern. When the rounding bottom does finally form, its low may not be the lowest low of the last few months.
Decline: The first portion of the rounding bottom is the decline that leads to the low of the pattern. This decline can take on different forms: some are quite jagged with a number of reaction highs and lows, while others trade lower in a more linear fashion.
Low: The low of the rounding bottom can resemble a “V” bottom, but should not be too sharp and should take a few weeks to form. Because prices are in a long-term decline, the possibility of a selling climax exists that could create a lower spike.
Advance: The advance off of the lows forms the right half of the pattern and should take about the same amount of time as the prior decline. If the advance is too sharp, then the validity of a rounding bottom may be in question.
Breakout: Bullish confirmation comes when the pattern breaks above the reaction high that marked the beginning of the decline at the start of the pattern. As with most resistance breakouts, this level can become support. However, rounding bottoms represent long-term reversal and this new support level may not be that significant.
Volume: In an ideal pattern, volume levels will track the shape of the rounding bottom: high at the beginning of the decline, low at the end of the decline and rising during the advance. Volume levels are not too important on the decline, but there should be an increase in volume on the advance and preferably on the breakout.
A rounding bottom could be thought of as a head and shoulders bottom without readily identifiable shoulders. The head represents the low and is fairly central to the pattern. The volume levels throughout the pattern mimic those of the head and shoulders bottom; confirmation comes with a resistance breakout. While symmetry is preferable on the rounding bottom, the left and right side do not have to be equal in time or slope. The important thing is to capture the essence of the pattern.
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Rising Wedge and forex signals
The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that begins wide at the bottom and contracts as prices move higher and the trading range narrows. In contrast to symmetrical triangles, which have no definitive slope and no bullish or bearish bias, rising wedges definitely slope up and have a bearish bias.
While though this article will focus on the rising wedge as a reversal pattern, the pattern can also fit into the continuation category. As a continuation pattern, the rising wedge will still slope up, but the slope will be against the prevailing downtrend. As a reversal pattern, the rising wedge will slope up and with the prevailing trend. Regardless of the type (reversal or continuation), rising wedges are bearish.
Prior Trend: In order to qualify as a reversal pattern, there must be a prior trend to reverse. The rising wedge usually forms over a 3-6 month period and can mark an intermediate or long-term trend reversal. Sometimes the current trend is totally contained within the rising wedge; other times the pattern will form after an extended advance.
Upper Resistance Line: It takes at least two reaction highs to form the upper resistance line, ideally three. Each reaction high should be higher than the previous high.
Lower Support Line: At least two reaction lows are required to form the lower support line. Each reaction low should be higher than the previous low.
Contraction: The upper resistance line and lower support line converge as the pattern matures. The advances from the reaction lows (lower support line) become shorter and shorter, which makes the rallies unconvincing. This creates an upper resistance line that fails to keep pace with the slope of the lower support line and indicates a supply overhang as prices increase.
Support Break: Bearish confirmation of the pattern does not come until the support line is broken in a convincing fashion. It is sometimes prudent to wait for a break of the previous reaction low. Once support is broken, there can sometimes be a reaction rally to test the newfound resistance level.
Volume: Ideally, volume will decline as prices rise and the wedge evolves. An expansion of volume on the support line break can be taken as bearish confirmation.
The rising wedge can be one of the most difficult chart patterns to accurately recognize and trade. While it is a consolidation formation, the loss of upside momentum on each successive high gives the pattern its bearish bias. However, the series of higher highs and higher lows keeps the trend inherently bullish. The final break of support indicates that the forces of supply have finally won out and lower prices are likely. There are no measuring techniques to estimate the decline – other aspects of technical analysis should be employed to forecast price targets.
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SIGN UP FOR A FREE TRIAL To Access FREE Forex Signals in the Members Area START FREE 30 DAYS TRIAL on https://www.freeforex-signals.com/
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