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Moving averages
The advantages of using moving averages need to be weighed against the disadvantages. Moving averages are trend following, or lagging, indicators that will always be a step behind. This is not necessarily a bad thing though. After all, the trend is your friend and it is best to trade in the direction of the trend. Moving averages ensure that a trader is in line with the current trend. Even though the trend is your friend, securities spend a great deal of time in trading ranges, which render moving averages ineffective. Once in a trend, moving averages will keep you in, but also give late signals. Don't expect to sell at the top and buy at the bottom using moving averages. As with most technical analysis tools, moving averages should not be used on their own, but in conjunction with other complementary tools. Chartists can use moving averages to define the overall trend and then use RSI to define overbought or oversold levels.
Price Crossovers
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Moving averages can also be used to generate signals with simple price crossovers. A bullish signal is generated when prices move above the moving average. A bearish signal is generated when prices move below the moving average. Price crossovers can be combined to trade within the bigger trend. The longer moving average sets the tone for the bigger trend and the shorter moving average is used to generate the signals. One would look for bullish price crosses only when prices are already above the longer moving average. This would be trading in harmony with the bigger trend. For example, if price is above the 200-day moving average, chartists would only focus on signals when price moves above the 50-day moving average. Obviously, a move below the 50-day moving average would precede such a signal, but such bearish crosses would be ignored because the bigger trend is up. A bearish cross would simply suggest a pullback within a bigger uptrend. A cross back above the 50-day moving average would signal an upturn in prices and continuation of the bigger uptrend.
Gold Forecast
The next chart shows Emerson Electric (EMR) with the 50-day EMA and 200-day EMA. The stock crossed and held above the 200-day moving average in August. There were dips below the 50-day EMA in early November and again in early February. Prices quickly moved back above the 50-day EMA to provide bullish signals (green arrows) in harmony with the bigger uptrend. MACD(1,50,1) is shown in the indicator window to confirm price crosses above or below the 50-day EMA. The 1-day EMA equals the closing price. MACD(1,50,1) is positive when the close is above the 50-day EMA and negative when the close is below the 50-day EMA.
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Moving averages smooth the price data to form a trend following indicator. They do not predict price direction, but rather define the current direction, though they lag due to being based on past prices. Despite this, moving averages help smooth price action and filter out the noise. They also form the building blocks for many other technical indicators and overlays, such as Bollinger Bands, MACD and the McClellan Oscillator. The two most popular types of moving averages are the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). These moving averages can be used to identify the direction of the trend or define potential support and resistance levels.
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Head and Shoulders reversal
The pattern contains three successive peaks, with the middle peak (head) being the highest and the two outside peaks (shoulders) being low and roughly equal. The reaction lows of each peak can be connected to form support, or a neckline.
As its name implies, the Head and Shoulders reversal pattern is made up of a left shoulder, a head, a right shoulder, and a neckline. Other parts playing a role in the pattern are volume, the breakout, price target and support turned resistance. We will look at each part individually, and then put them together with some examples.
Prior Trend: It is important to establish the existence of a prior uptrend for this to be a reversal pattern. Without a prior uptrend to reverse, there cannot be a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (or any reversal pattern for that matter).
Left Shoulder: While in an uptrend, the left shoulder forms a peak that marks the high point of the current trend. After making this peak, a decline ensues to complete the formation of the shoulder (1). The low of the decline usually remains above the trend line, keeping the uptrend intact.
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Head: From the low of the left shoulder, an advance begins that exceeds the previous high and marks the top of the head. After peaking, the low of the subsequent decline marks the second point of the neckline (2). The low of the decline usually breaks the uptrend line, putting the uptrend in jeopardy.
Right Shoulder: The advance from the low of the head forms the right shoulder. This peak is lower than the head (a lower high) and usually in line with the high of the left shoulder. While symmetry is preferred, sometimes the shoulders can be out of whack. The decline from the peak of the right shoulder should break the neckline.
Neckline: The neckline forms by connecting low points 1 and 2. Low point 1 marks the end of the left shoulder and the beginning of the head. Low point 2 marks the end of the head and the beginning of the right shoulder. Depending on the relationship between the two low points, the neckline can slope up, slope down or be horizontal. The slope of the neckline will affect the pattern's degree of bearishness—a downward slope is more bearish than an upward slope. In some cases, multiple low points can be used to form the neckline.
Volume: As the Head and Shoulders pattern unfolds, volume plays an important role in confirmation. Volume can be measured as an indicator (OBV, Chaikin Money Flow) or simply by analyzing volume levels. Ideally, but not always, volume during the advance of the left shoulder should be higher than during the advance of the head. Together, the decrease in volume and the new high of the head serve as a warning sign. The next warning sign comes when volume increases on the decline from the peak of the head, then decreases during the advance of the right shoulder. Final confirmation comes when volume further increases during the decline of the right shoulder.
توصيات الذهب
Neckline Break: The head and shoulders pattern is not complete and the uptrend is not reversed until neckline support is broken. Ideally, this should also occur in a convincing manner, with an expansion in volume.
توصيات الفوركس
Support Turned Resistance: Once support is broken, it is common for this same support level to turn into resistance. Sometimes, but certainly not always, the price will return to the support break, and offer a second chance to sell.
Price Target: After breaking neckline support, the projected price decline is found by measuring the distance from the neckline to the top of the head. This distance is then subtracted from the neckline to reach a price target. Any price target should serve as a rough guide, and other factors should be considered as well. These factors might include previous support levels, Fibonacci retracements, or long-term moving averages. -
Value Investing
Value investors are bargain shoppers. They seek stocks they believe are undervalued. They look for stocks with prices they believe don’t fully reflect the intrinsic value of the security. Value investing is predicated, in part, on the idea that some degree of irrationality exists in the market. This irrationality, in theory, presents opportunities to get a stock at a discounted price and make money from it.
It’s not necessary for value investors to comb through volumes of financial data to find deals. Thousands of value mutual funds give investors the chance to own a basket of stocks thought to be undervalued. The Russell 1000 Value Index, for example, is a popular benchmark for value investors and several mutual funds mimic this index.
Warren Buffet: The Ultimate Value Investor
But if you are a true value investor, you don't need anyone to convince you need to stay in it for the long run because this strategy is designed around the idea that one should buy businesses—not stocks. That means the investor must consider the big picture, not a temporary knockout performance. People often cite legendary investor Warren Buffet as the epitome of a value investor. He does his homework—sometimes for years. But when he’s ready, he goes all in and is committed for the long-term.
Consider Buffett’s words when he made a substantial investment in the airline industry. He explained that airlines "had a bad first century." Then he said, "And they got a bad century out of the way, I hope."2 This thinking exemplifies much of the value investing approach. Choices are based on decades of trends and with decades of future performance in mind.
Value Investing Tools
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For those who don’t have time to perform exhaustive research, the price-earnings ratio (P/E) has become the primary tool for quickly identifying undervalued or cheap stocks. This is a single number that comes from dividing a stock’s share price by its earnings per share (EPS). A lower P/E ratio signifies you’re paying less per $1 of current earnings. Value investors seek companies with a low P/E ratio.
While using the P/E ratio is a good start, some experts warn this measurement alone is not enough to make the strategy work. Research published in the Financial Analysts Journal determined that “Quantitative investment strategies based on such ratios are not good substitutes for value-investing strategies that use a comprehensive approach in identifying underpriced securities.” 3 The reason, according to their work, is that investors are often lured by low P/E ratio stocks based on temporarily inflated accounting numbers. These low figures are, in many instances, the result of a falsely high earnings figure (the denominator). When real earnings are reported (not just forecasted) they’re often lower. This results in a “reversion to the mean.” The P/E ratio goes up and the value the investor pursued is gone.
What's the Message?
https://www.gold-pattern.com/en
Forex trading Signals
The message here is that value investing can work so long as the investor is in it for the long-term and is prepared to apply some serious effort and research to their stock selection. Those willing to put the work in and stick around stand to gain. One study from Dodge & Cox determined that value strategies nearly always outperform growth strategies “over horizons of a decade or more.” The study goes on to explain that value strategies have -
Financial Advisors Were Grateful
ging year, as financial advisors and their clients have had to navigate unprecedented issues. We asked several of our top advisors to share what had been most meaningful for them during 2020 and how it has shaped their professional outlook.
“I'm incredibly grateful for a supportive team of colleagues, amazing clients, and the ability to continue to use creativity when it comes to inspiring people to make smarter choices with their money. The best moments with my clients have been sprinkled throughout the year. Many clients checked in on me as often as I've checked in on them throughout the pandemic. Some of my favorite moments have come when I've been able to educate about the benefits of donor-advised funds and how they can be leveraged in a family gifting strategy. There really have been bright moments throughout all of this. —Mary Beth Storjohann, Founder of Workable Wealth
“Professionally, I am most grateful to be a symbol of possibility for the many people across continents—regardless of race, region, or creed—that with faith, work, and discipline, you can design the life of your dreams. Onward.” —Dasarte Yarnway, Founder & Managing Director of Berknell Financial Group
“I'm most grateful for the health of our clients, team, and families during this challenging year. I'm also grateful for gaining confidence to get more personal and vulnerable with clients—something I've always struggled with. As a result, one of my favorite moments with clients was the overwhelming support for my three-year-old son who had to have emergency surgery during the first wave of the pandemic. There is no better profession in the world and I'm feeling extra thankful this year for being a part of it.” —Taylor Schulte, Founder & CEO of Define Financial
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“I appreciate the amazing clients that have placed their trust and confidence in me and the financial planning process. I am grateful for the opportunity to collaborate with such special people and help them navigate challenging times while planning for their important milestones.” —Marguerita Cheng, CEO of Blue Ocean Global Wealth
“Professionally, I am most grateful for an amazing staff and partnerships that have helped make an inherently challenging year easier. They say business is about your people and that if you take care of them, they will take care of you. I find this to be especially true in 2020. The best moments with my clients have been the ones where we didn’t talk about finances and shared stories of raising kids during a pandemic. I can’t think of a better way to have connected with them.” —Douglas Boneparth, President of Bone Fide Wealth
“Despite the craziness of 2020, there is plenty to be thankful for. I'm thankful that my family, my team, and my clients have all remained healthy during the pandemic. Professionally, I'm thankful for my peers—without The AGC™ and my friends from around the profession, navigating the year would have been lonely and much harder. This year has provided time for reflection, which I've found has allowed clients to really examine what is most important to them. I've had numerous conversations with clients where we've refocused their financial plans to allow them to align their values with their plan—these conversations are always fun and lead to a financial plan that will have a greater impact on their lives.” —Justin Castelli, CEO of RSL Wealth Management
“I’m most grateful for the wonderful community of financial advisors who have kept me sane through a challenging year through their support and camaraderie. I’m in a coaching program, two masterminds, and also tap into the #Fintwit community on Twitter—they all made this year better. This year, I primarily met with clients via Zoom. To my surprise, instead of creating distance with clients, Zoom seemed to create an atmosphere for more sharing and conversation. I feel closer to my clients than pre-COVID and feel like I know them even better than before.” —Cathy Curtis, Founder & CEO of Curtis Financial Planning
Judging by these moments of gratitude, it’s clear that the financial advisor community is as strong as ever and that advisors have had a significant impact on your clients’ lives during the unprecedented turmoil of 2020.
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