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Individual Differences Psychology
Perhaps the first task of every teacher in a class should be to know and study individual differences among his pupils. Individual differences in bodily appearance and physique, habits and skills, interests and temperaments, abilities and attainments have already been recognised.
According to Skinner, “Today we think of individual differences as including any measurable aspect of the total personality.” It is clear from this definition of individual differences that it comprehends every aspect of human personality which is in some manner measurable.
Types of Individual Differences:
1. Physical differences:
Shortness or tallness of stature, darkness or fairness of complexion, fatness, thinness, or weakness are various physical individual differences.
2. Differences in intelligence:
There are differences in intelligence level among different individuals. We can classify the individuals from super-normal (above 120 I.Q.) to idiots (from 0 to 50 I.Q.) on the basis of their intelligence level.
3. Differences in attitudes:
Individuals differ in their attitudes towards different people, objects, institutions and authority.
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4. Differences in achievement:
It has been found through achievement tests that individuals differ in their achievement abilities. These differences are very much visible in reading, writing and in learning mathematics.
These differences in achievement are even visible among the children who are at the same level of intelligence. These differences are on account of the differences in the various factors of intelligence and the differences in the various experiences, interests and educational background.
5. Differences in motor ability:
There are differences in motor ability. These differences are visible at different ages. Some people can perform mechanical tasks easily, while others, even though they are at the same level, feel much difficulty in performing these tasks.
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6. Differences on account of sex:
McNemar and Terman discovered the following differences between men and women, on the basis of some studies:
(i) Women have greater skill in memory while men have greater motor ability.
(ii) Handwriting of women is superior while men excel in mathematics and logic.
(iii) Women show greater skill in making sensory distinctions of taste, touch and smell etc., while men show greater reaction and conscious of size- weight illusion.
(iv) Women are superior to men in languages, while men are superior in physics and chemistry.
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(v) Women are better than men in mirror drawing. Faults of speech etc. in men were found to be three times of such faults in women.
(vi) Women are more susceptible to suggestion while there are three times as many colour blind men as there are women.
(vii) Young girls take interest in stories of love, fairy tales, stories of the school and home and day-dreaming and show various levels in their play. On the other hand boys take interest in stories of bravery, science, war, scouting, stories of games and sports, stories and games of occupation and skill.
7. Racial differences:
There are different kinds of racial differences. Differences of environment is a normal factor in causing these differences. Karl Brigham has composed a list on the basis of differences in levels of intelligence among people who have migrated to United States from other countries.
On the basis of these average differences between the races, the mental age of a particular individual cannot be calculated since this difference is based on environment.
8. Differences due to nationality:
Individuals of different nations differ in respect of physical and mental differences, interests and personality etc. ‘Russians are tall and stout’; ‘Ceylonese are short and slim’; ‘Germans have no sense of humour’; ‘Yellow races are cruel and revengeful’; ‘Americans are hearty and frank’; Indians are timid and peace-loving’ and the like observations enter into our common talk.
9. Differences due to economic status:
Differences in children’s interests, tendencies and character are caused by economic differences.
10. Differences in interests:
Factors such as sex, family background level of development, differences of race and nationality etc., cause differences in interests.
11. Emotional differences:
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Individuals differ in their emotional reactions to a particular situation. Some are irritable and aggressive and they get angry very soon. There are others who are of peaceful nature and do not get angry easily. At a particular thing an individual may be so much enraged that he may be prepared for the worst crime like murder, while another person may only laugh at it.
12. Personality differences:
There are differences in respect of personality. On the basis of differences in personality, individuals have been classified into many groups. -
Professionalism
Professionalism is a powerful quality. It allows you to fulfilll your role to the best of your ability. It helps you to impress and inspire others. And it gives you a deep sense of satisfaction and self-worth.
What's more, professionalism is something that everyone can aspire to from day one of their career.
In this article, we explain what professionalism means today, and show you how to act and feel like a professional – wherever you work.
What Is Professionalism?
As the saying goes, "Professionalism is not the job you do, it's how you do the job."
Professionalism involves consistently achieving high standards, both visibly and "behind the scenes" – whatever your role or profession.
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Some sectors, workplaces or roles have particular "rules" of professionalism. These may be explicit, such as an agreed dress code, or a policy for using social media. Other rules and expectations may not be written down, but they can be just as important – such as what is regarded as professional behavior at meetings, or even how people personalize their desks.
It pays to be observant, and to ask for clarification if necessary. "Fitting in" is a big part of professionalism, as it's a way to show respect, attention to detail, and a commitment to upholding agreed practices and values.
However, "being true to yourself" is just as important. True professionals don't follow rules mindlessly, and they know when and how to challenge norms. They're also flexible, and they find their own ways to do things – while still maintaining high standards.
8 Characteristics of Professionalism
What are the attributes that will mark you out as a professional? Let's look at eight key characteristics:
1. Competence
As a professional, you get the job done – and done well. Your abilities match the requirements of your role, and you often produce results that exceed expectations.
But you never plow on simply for the sake of appearances. Instead, your professionalism allows you to manage your own and others' expectations, and to ask for support when necessary.
2. Knowledge
Professionalism involves developing detailed, up-to-date knowledge, which is often highly specialized. At every stage of your career you can strive to master your role – and keep adding to what you know.
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It's also important to put your knowledge into action. Being professional means feeling confident to show what you know – not for self-promotion, but to help yourself and others to succeed.
3. Conscientiousness
Professionalism involves being reliable, setting your own high standards, and showing that you care about every aspect of your job. It's about being industrious and organized, and holding yourself accountable for your thoughts, words and actions.
But don't confuse conscientiousness with working longer hours than everyone else, or obsessing about details. True professionals plan and prioritize their work to keep it under control, and they don't let perfectionism hold them back.
4. Integrity
Integrity is what keeps professional people true to their word. It also stops them compromising their values, even if that means taking a harder road.
Integrity is bound up with being honest – to yourself, and to the people you meet. Your beliefs and behaviors are aligned, and everyone can see that you're genuine.
5. Respect
Professionalism means being a role model for politeness and good manners – to everyone, not just those you need to impress.
What's more, you show that you truly respect other people by taking their needs into account, and by helping to uphold their rights.
6. Emotional Intelligence
To be a true professional you need to stay professional even under pressure. This takes strategies for managing your emotions, plus a clear awareness of other people's feelings. In short, emotional intelligence is essential.
Sometimes, professionalism means keeping your emotions in check. But at other times it's important to express your feelings, in order to have meaningful conversations or to stand up for what you believe in.
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7. Appropriateness
A big part of being professional is knowing what's appropriate in different situations. It avoids awkwardness or upset, boosts your credibility, and helps you to feel secure in your role.
Appropriateness relates to outward appearances, such as dress, personal grooming and body language.
But it also covers the way you speak and write, the topics you choose to discuss, and how you behave with others.
8. Confidence
Well-founded confidence reassures and motivates other people, boosting your ability to influence and lead. It also pushes you to take on new challenges, because you don't fear damaging your professional reputation if things go wrong.
Professionalism makes you confident about what you’re doing now, but always eager to do it better and achieve more.
How to Exhibit Professionalism
Now that we've seen the qualities that set professionals apart, let's explore ways to improve in each of these eight areas.
https://www.gold-pattern.com/en -
The Surprising Power of Small Habits
Category: Growth, Habits, and Peak Performance
Description: We live in a world of competition. The margin between good and great is slimmer than ever before. Small habits can unlock the improvements you need to get the results you want.
Your life today is essentially the sum of your habits. How in shape or out of shape you are? A result of your habits. How happy or unhappy you are? A result of your habits. How successful or unsuccessful you are? A result of your habits. What you repeatedly do ultimately forms the person you are, the things you believe, and the results you enjoy. It is so easy to overestimate the importance of one defining moment and underestimate the value of making better decisions on a daily basis. The daily choices we make shape our teams, our societies, and ourselves. Change your habits and you’ll change your life.
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In this popular talk, James Clear explains a simple and powerful strategy for how to stick to good habits and break bad ones. His practical framework will break down the proven science of how habits work and explain how every person can build high performance habits. After delivering this talk for the closing keynote at Stanford University for the Habit Summit, conference founder Nir Eyal declared, “His talk on building better habits, driving behavior change, and improving performance wowed the crowd of startup founders, consultants, and venture capitalists. I couldn’t be happier with my choice to bring in James to speak to our audience.”
The Surprising Power of Small Habits
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Your life today is essentially the sum of your habits. Are you in the physical shape that you want to be in? Are you optimizing your talents at work? Is your team achieving its targets? All are a result of habits. What we repeatedly do, each and every day, ultimately forms the results we enjoy and the goals we achieve. Change your habits, change your systems, and you’ll transform your life, team and organization.
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James Clear explains this breakthrough approach to creating transformational change. He breaks down the science to show how change works at the most granular level and how the accumulation of just one percent improvements each day leads to massive change over time. Using inspiring examples of individuals and teams that have achieved extraordinary goals like winning the Tour de France or reinventing manufacturing processes, James shows how any goal can be achieved by adopting the right habits and systems, the right way. A transformative talk that leaves you seeing any challenge through the lens of positive and negative habits and equipped with proven strategies to achieve any goal.
https://www.gold-pattern.com/en -
How Stop-Loss Orders Work
Traders or investors may choose to use a stop-loss
order to limit their losses
and protect their profits.
By placing a stop-loss order,
they can manage risk by exiting a position
if the price for their security starts moving in the direction
opposite to the position that they've taken.
Read more on https://www.gold-pattern.com/en -
How Stop-Loss Orders Work
Traders or investors may choose to use a stop-loss order to limit their losses and protect their profits. By placing a stop-loss order, they can manage risk by exiting a position if the price for their security starts moving in the direction opposite to the position that they've taken.
A stop-loss order to sell is a customer order that instructs a broker to sell a security if the market price for it drops to or below a specified stop price. A stop-loss order to buy sets the stop price above the current market price.
Advantage Over a Stop-Limit Order
A stop-loss order becomes a market order to be executed at the best available price if the price of a security reaches the stop price. A stop-limit order also triggers at the stop price. However, the limit order might not be executed because it is an order to execute at a specific (limit) price. Thus, the stop-loss order removes the risk that a position won't be closed out as the stock price continues to fall.
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Potential Disadvantages
One disadvantage of the stop-loss order concerns price gaps. If a stock price suddenly gaps below (or above) the stop price, the order would trigger. The stock would be sold (or bought) at the next available price even if the stock is trading sharply away from your stop loss level.
Another disadvantage concerns getting stopped out in a choppy market that quickly reverses itself and resumes in the direction that was beneficial to your position.
Investors can create a more flexible stop-loss order by combining it with a trailing stop. A trailing stop is an order whose stop price, rather than being a fixed price, is instead set at a certain percentage or dollar amount below (or above) the current market price. So, for instance, as the price of a security that you own moves up, the stop price moves up with it, allowing you to lock in some profit as you continue to be protected from downside risk.
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Benefits of Stop-Loss Orders
Stop-loss orders are a smart and easy way to manage the risk of loss on a trade.
They can help traders lock in profit.
Every investor can make them a part of their investment strategy.
They add discipline to an investor's short-term trading efforts.
They take emotions out of trading.
They eliminate the need to monitor investments on a daily (or hourly) basis.
Examples of Stop-Loss Orders
A trader buys 100 shares of XYZ Company for $100 and sets a stop-loss order at $90. The stock declines over the next few weeks and falls below $90. The trader's stop-loss order gets triggered and the position is sold at $89.95 for a minor loss. The market continues trending downward.
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A trader buys 500 shares of ABC Corporation for $100 and sets a stop-loss order for $90. After the market closes, the business reports unfavorable earnings results. When the market opens the next day, ABC's stock price gaps down. The trader's stop-loss order is triggered. The order gets executed at a price of $70.00 for a substantial loss. However, the market continues dropping and closes at 49.50. While the stop-loss order couldn't protect the trader as originally intended, it still limited the loss to much less than it could have been.
What's a Stop-Loss Order?
It's an order placed once you've taken a position in a security (on the buy side or sell side) with instructions to close out your position by selling (or buying) the security at the market if the price of the security reaches a specific level.
How Does a Stop-Loss Order Limit Loss?
A stop-loss order limits your exposure to less of a loss than you might otherwise experience by automatically closing out your position if your stock trades to an unfavorable market price level that you designate. If you use a trailing stop with your stop-loss order, that protection can move with your position even as it increases in value. So, a loss could translate to less profit rather than a complete loss.
Do Long-Term Investors Need Stop-Loss Orders?
Probably not. Long-term investors shouldn't be overly concerned with market fluctuations because they're in the market for the long haul and can wait for it to recover from downturns. However, they can and should evaluate market drops to determine if some action is called for. For example, a downturn could provide the opportunity to add to their positions, rather than to exit them. -
Personality
Personality refers to the enduring characteristics and behavior that comprise a person’s unique adjustment to life, including major traits, interests, drives, values, self-concept, abilities, and emotional patterns. Various theories explain the structure and development of personality in different ways, but all agree that personality helps determine behavior.
The field of personality psychology studies the nature and definition of personality as well as its development, structure and trait constructs, dynamic processes, variations (with emphasis on enduring and stable individual differences), and maladaptive forms.
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Personality psychology is a branch of psychology that examines personality and its variation among individuals. It aims to show how people are individually different due to psychological forces.[1] Its areas of focus include:
construction of a coherent picture of the individual and their major psychological processes
investigation of individual psychological differences
investigation of human nature and psychological similarities between individuals
"Personality" is a dynamic and organized set of characteristics possessed by an individual that uniquely influences their environment, cognition, emotions, motivations, and behaviors in various situations. The word personality originates from the Latin persona, which means "mask".
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Personality also pertains to the pattern of thoughts, feelings, social adjustments, and behaviors persistently exhibited over time that strongly influences one's expectations, self-perceptions, values, and attitudes. Personality also predicts human reactions to other people, problems, and stress.[2][3] Gordon Allport (1937) described two major ways to study personality: the nomothetic and the idiographic. Nomothetic psychology seeks general laws that can be applied to many different people, such as the principle of self-actualization or the trait of extraversion. Idiographic psychology is an attempt to understand the unique aspects of a particular individual.
The study of personality has a broad and varied history in psychology, with an abundance of theoretical traditions. The major theories include dispositional (trait) perspective, psychodynamic, humanistic, biological, behaviorist, evolutionary, and social learning perspective. Many researchers and psychologists do not explicitly identify themselves with a certain perspective and instead take an eclectic approach. Research in this area is empirically driven – such as dimensional models, based on multivariate statistics such as factor analysis – or emphasizes theory development, such as that of the psychodynamic theory. There is also a substantial emphasis on the applied field of personality testing. In psychological education and training, the study of the nature of personality and its psychological development is usually reviewed as a prerequisite to courses in abnormal psychology or clinical psychology.
Philosophical assumptions
Many of the ideas conceptualized by historical and modern personality theorists stem from the basic philosophical assumptions they hold. The study of personality is not a purely empirical discipline, as it brings in elements of art, science, and philosophy to draw general conclusions. The following five categories are some of the most fundamental philosophical assumptions on which theorists disagree:[4]
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Freedom versus determinism – This is the question of whether humans have control over their own behavior and understand the motives behind it, or if their behavior is causally determined by forces beyond their control. Behavior is categorized as being either unconscious, environmental or biological by various theories.
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Heredity (nature) versus environment (nurture) – Personality is thought to be determined largely either by genetics and biology, or by environment and experiences. Contemporary research suggests that most personality traits are based on the joint influence of genetics and environment. One of the forerunners in this arena is C. Robert Cloninger, who pioneered the Temperament and Character model.[4]
Uniqueness versus universality – This question discusses the extent of each human's individuality (uniqueness) or similarity in nature (universality). Gordon Allport, Abraham Maslow, and Carl Rogers were all advocates of the uniqueness of individuals. Behaviorists and cognitive theorists, in contrast, emphasize the importance of universal principles, such as reinforcement and self-efficacy.[4]
Active versus reactive – This question explores whether humans primarily act through individual initiative (active) or through outside stimuli. Traditional behavioral theorists typically believed that humans are passively shaped by their environments, whereas humanistic and cognitive theorists believe that humans play a more active role.[4] Most modern theorists agree that both are important, with aggregate behavior being primarily determined by traits and situational factors being the pri -
How Trends Work
Traders can identify a trend using various forms of technical analysis, including trendlines, price action, and technical indicators. For example, trendlines might show the direction of a trend while the relative strength index (RSI) is designed to show the strength of a trend at any given point in time.
An uptrend is marked by an overall increase in price. Nothing moves straight up for long, so there will always be oscillations, but the overall direction needs to be higher in order for it to be considered an uptrend. Recent swing lows should be above prior swing lows, and the same goes for swing highs. Once this structure starts to break down, the uptrend could be losing steam or reversing into a downtrend. Downtrends are composed of lower swing lows and lower swing highs.
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While the trend is up, traders may assume it will continue until there is evidence that points to the contrary. Such evidence could include lower swing lows or highs, the price breaking below a trendline, or technical indicators turning bearish. While the trend is up, traders focus on buying, attempting to profit from a continued price rise.
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When the trend turns down, traders focus more on selling or shorting, attempting to minimize losses or profit from the price decline. Most (not all) downtrends do reverse at some point, so as the price continues to decline, more traders begin to see the price as a bargain and step in to buy. This could lead to the emergence of an uptrend again.
Trends may also be used by investors focused on fundamental analysis. This form of analysis looks at changes in revenue, earnings, or other business or economic metrics. For example, fundamental analysts may look for trends in earnings per share and revenue growth. If earnings have grown for the past four quarters, this represents a positive trend. However, if earnings have declined for the past four quarters, it represents a negative trend.
The lack of a trend—that is, a period of time where there is little overall upward or downward progress—is called a range or trendless period.
Using Trendlines
A common way to identify trends is using trendlines, which connect a series of highs (downtrend) or lows (uptrend). Uptrends connect a series of higher lows, creating a support level for future price movements. Downtrends connect a series of lower highs, creating a resistance level for future price movements. In addition to support and resistance, these trendlines show the overall direction of the trend.
While trendlines do a good job of showing overall direction, they will often need to be redrawn. For example, during an uptrend, the price may fall below the trendline, yet this doesn't necessarily mean the trend is over. The price may move below the trendline and then continue rising. In such an event, the trendline may need to be redrawn to reflect the new price action.
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Trendlines should not be relied on exclusively to determine the trend. Most professionals also tend to look at price action and other technical indicators to help determine if a trend is ending or not. In the example above, a drop below the trendline isn't necessarily a sell signal, but if the price also drops below a prior swing low and/or technical indicators are turning bearish, then it might be.
Example of a Trend and Trendline
The following chart shows a rising trendline along with an RSI reading that suggests a strong trend. While the price is oscillating, the overall progress is to the upside.
The rising trend begins to lose momentum and selling pressure kicks in. The RSI falls below 70, followed by a very large down candle that takes the price to the trendline. The move lower was confirmed the next day when the price gapped below the trendline. These signals could have been used to exit long positions as there was evidence that the trend was turning. Short trades could have also been initiated.
https://www.gold-pattern.com/en
As the price moves lower, it starts to attract buyers interested in the lower price. Another trendline (not shown) could also be drawn along the falling price to indicate when a bounce may be coming. That trendline would be have been penetrated near the middle of February as the price made a quick v-bottom and progressed higher. -
Understanding Risk Management
Risk management occurs everywhere in the realm of finance. It occurs when an investor buys U.S. Treasury bonds over corporate bonds, when a fund manager hedges his currency exposure with currency derivatives, and when a bank performs a credit check on an individual before issuing a personal line of credit. Stockbrokers use financial instruments like options and futures, and money managers use strategies like portfolio diversification, asset allocation and position sizing to mitigate or effectively manage risk.
Inadequate risk management can result in severe consequences for companies, individuals, and the economy. For example, the subprime mortgage meltdown in 2007 that helped trigger the Great Recession stemmed from bad risk-management decisions, such as lenders who extended mortgages to individuals with poor credit; investment firms who bought, packaged, and resold these mortgages; and funds that invested excessively in the repackaged, but still risky, mortgage-backed securities (MBSs).
Practice trading with virtual money
Find out what a hypothetical investment would be worth today.
SELECT A STOCK
TSLA
TESLA INC
AAPL
APPLE INC
NKE
NIKE INC
AMZN
AMAZON.COM, INC
WMT
WALMART INC
SELECT INVESTMENT AMOUNT
$
1000
SELECT A PURCHASE DATE
5 years ago
CALCULATE
Good, Bad, and Necessary Risk
We tend to think of "risk" in predominantly negative terms. However, in the investment world, risk is necessary and inseparable from desirable performance.
A common definition of investment risk is a deviation from an expected outcome. We can express this deviation in absolute terms or relative to something else, like a market benchmark.
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While that deviation may be positive or negative, investment professionals generally accept the idea that such deviation implies some degree of the intended outcome for your investments. Thus to achieve higher returns one expects to accept the greater risk. It is also a generally accepted idea that increased risk comes in the form of increased volatility. While investment professionals constantly seek—and occasionally find—ways to reduce such volatility, there is no clear agreement among them on how it's best done.
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How much volatility an investor should accept depends entirely on the individual investor's tolerance for risk, or in the case of an investment professional, how much tolerance their investment objectives allow. One of the most commonly used absolute risk metrics is standard deviation, a statistical measure of dispersion around a central tendency. You look at the average return of an investment and then find its average standard deviation over the same time period. Normal distributions (the familiar bell-shaped curve) dictate that the expected return of the investment is likely to be one standard deviation from the average 67% of the time and two standard deviations from the average deviation 95% of the time. This helps investors evaluate risk numerically. If they believe that they can tolerate the risk, financially and emotionally, they invest.
Risk Management Example
For example, during a 15-year period from Aug. 1, 1992, to July 31, 2007, the average annualized total return of the S&P 500 was 10.7%. This number reveals what happened for the whole period, but it does not say what happened along the way. The average standard deviation of the S&P 500 for that same period was 13.5%. This is the difference between the average return and the real return at most given points throughout the 15-year period.
When applying the bell curve model, any given outcome should fall within one standard deviation of the mean about 67% of the time and within two standard deviations about 95% of the time. Thus, an S&P 500 investor could expect the return, at any given point during this period, to be 10.7% plus or minus the standard deviation of 13.5% about 67% of the time; he may also assume a 27% (two standard deviations) increase or decrease 95% of the time. If he can afford the loss, he invests.
Risk Management and Psychology
While that information may be helpful, it does not fully address an investor's risk concerns. The field of behavioral finance has contributed an important element to the risk equation, demonstrating asymmetry between how people view gains and losses. In the language of prospect theory, an area of behavioral finance introduced by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1979, investors exhibit loss aversion. Tversky and Kahneman documented that investors put roughly twice the weight on the pain associated with a loss than the good feeling associated with a profit.
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Often, what investors really want to know is not just how much an asset deviates from its expected outcome, but how bad things look way down on the left-hand tail of the distribution curve. Value at risk (VAR) attempts to provide an answer to this question
https://www.gold-pattern.com/en -
Habits
The word habit is pulled from the Latin words habere, which means "have, consist of," and habitus, which means "condition, or state of being." It also is derived from the French word habit (pronounced \ah-bee\), which means clothes.[11] In the 13th century, the word habit first just referred to clothing. The meaning then progressed to the more common use of the word, which is "acquired mode of behavior."[11]
Formation
Habit formation is the process by which a behavior, through regular repetition, becomes automatic or habitual. This is modeled as an increase in automaticity with the number of repetitions up to an asymptote.[13][14][15] This process of habit formation can be slow. Lally et al. (2010) found the average time for participants to reach the asymptote of automaticity was 66 days with a range of 18–254
days.[15]
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There are 3 main components to habit formation: the context cue, behavioral repetition, and the reward.[16] The context cue can be a prior action, time of day, location, or anything that triggers the habitual behavior. This could be anything that one's mind associates with that habit, and one will automatically let a habit come to the surface. The behavior is the actual habit that one exhibits, and the reward, such as a positive feeling, therefore continues the "habit loop".[17] A habit may initially be triggered by a goal, but over time that goal becomes less necessary and the habit becomes more automatic. Intermittent or uncertain rewards have been found to be particularly effective in promoting habit learning.[18]
A variety of digital tools, online or mobile apps, have been introduced that are designed to support habit formation. For example, Habitica is a system that uses gamification, implementing strategies found in video games to real-life tasks by adding rewards such as experience and gold.[19] However, a review of such tools suggests most are poorly designed with respect to theory and fail to support the development of automaticity.[20][21]
Shopping habits are particularly vulnerable to change at "major life moments" like graduation, marriage, the birth of the first child, moving to a new home, and divorce. Some stores use purchase data to try to detect these events and take advantage of the marketing opportunity.[22]
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Some habits are known as "keystone habits," and these influence the formation of other habits. For example, identifying as the type of person who takes care of their body and is in the habit of exercising regularly, can also influence eating better and using credit cards less. In business, safety can be a keystone habit that influences other habits that result in greater productivity.[22]
A recent study by Adriaanse et al. (2014) found that habits mediate the relationship between self-control and unhealthy snack consumption.[23] The results of the study empirically demonstrate that high self-control may influence the formation of habits and in turn affect behavior.
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Goals
The habit–goal interface or interaction is constrained by the particular manner in which habits are learned and represented in memory. Specifically, the associative learning underlying habits is characterized by the slow, incremental accrual of information over time in procedural memory.[9] Habits can either benefit or hurt the goals a person sets for themselves.
Goals guide habits by providing the initial outcome-oriented motivation for response repetition. In this sense, habits are often a trace of past goal pursuit.[9] Although, when a habit forces one action, but a conscious goal pushes for another action, an oppositional context occurs.[24] When the habit prevails over the conscious goal, a capture error has taken place.
Behavior prediction is also derived from goals. Behavior prediction acknowledges the likelihood that a habit will form, but in order to form that habit, a goal must have been initially present. The influence of goals on habits is what makes a habit different from other automatic processes in the mind.[25]
https://www.gold-pattern.com/en
The following is a description of a classic goal devaluation experiment (from a Scientific American MIND guest blog post called Should Habits or Goals Direct Your Life? It Depends) which demonstrates the difference between goal-directed and habitual behavior: -
Why I Go To Investment Conferences
I’m off to a conference this week for the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). Why am I going? What do I hope to get out it? When you go to investment gatherings, what are your expectations? I’ve garnered essential benefits from a wide variety of seminars and conferences, and those benefits serve as an informal “goals list” for this week’s IFTA event.
1. I’m less interested in the speakers’ prognostications and future outlooks, and more interested in their systematic methods of analysis. If they offer up one without the other, I am not shy in challenging them for specifics.
2. I have a rule that I don’t read investment books unless they come recommended to me by at least two people I respect. There are just too many bad and misleading how-to books out there. I’m a little like that with new resources as well, such as advanced tools or websites. These conferences are a wonderful venue for learning about such items.
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4. In listening to other experienced investors talk about their tools and systems, one can’t help but review one’s own methodology. This enforced reflection is facilitated by metaphorically kicking the tires of other investors’ approaches. Most of the time, it reinforces my own methodology and builds self-confidence in my own system, and confidence does matter.
A corollary to objective #1 above is to remind attendees that the guy sitting next to you may have valuable knowledge and experience to share with you as well. I’ve found that these peer-to-peer, belly-to-belly networking توصيات الاسهم الامريكية
5. opportunities can yield both friendships as well as keen insights. In other words, don’t miss the lunch and dinner events. It’s half the fun, and you never know who you’ll get seated next to!
6. Call it the enthusiasm kick-start. I find I’m simply recharged as a trader when I get home. Let’s face it, these things are usually at pretty nice locations, and taking a break from normal office routines is always good for whatever ails you, even if you think nothing is ailing you.
7. Sometimes, I’ll take with me a specific element of my methodology or an indicator that I’d like some help demystifying an area of confusion. I recall just such a case some 20 years ago pertaining to stochastics. Lo and behold, I had dinner with George Lane, the creator of the stochastics oscillator. His advice was spot on, and I’ve been reaping the benefits for the past two decades. But I did pay for dinner!
8. With any speaker, I first try to ascertain his or her motive for being there as a presenter. This offers both a credibility check as well as helps me to focus on specific content rather than being mesmerized by the sizzle or the sales pitch. Keep an open mind, but in the end remember there is seldom a free lunch.
9. https://www.gold-pattern.com/en
Finally, don’t get swept up into a totally new investment methodology or excited by a new system far outside of your comfort zone. Most investment conferences and seminars can offer something appropriate for every level of investor. You may have to actively dig for it, but that one trading gem which catapults you onto the next higher rung is there somewhere. Be patient. Be focused. But for gosh sake, be there. توصيات الذهب -
Wall Street's Complexity versus Investors' Profits & Simplicity
“Any darn fool can make something complex; it takes a genius to make something simple.” -- Pete Seeger
As a long-time trader, I am living breathing proof that simplicity and profits are positively correlated while complexity and profits are inversely correlated. In other words, as my 25 year investing career has jettisoned multiple methodologies and numerous indicators, my profits have became more regular and predictable while my losing ratio has diminished. This is the absolute antithesis of what Wall Street wants you to believe.
Wall Street lives and breathes on complexity. They pitch derivatives of every variety and alternative funds for specific self-serving reasons.
1. They want to convince investors that it’s far too complicated for them to manage their own money – therefore, the wisest decision is for investors to just give it to Wall Street managers instead.
2. They try to assure you that with this complexity come “insider” rates of returns and big profits. But then can you explain to me why so many university endowments and retirement funds are closing out their hedge fund positions? Because the returns have not justified the risks, losses and complexity.
3. Wall Street loves to use the cliché, “you get what you pay for” as justification for higher fees. So then, can you explain to me again why so many academic studies have concluded that no load mutual funds outperform advisor-recommended loaded mutual funds? The fact is that investors often do not get what they pay for.
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The catalyst for this week’s rant is that I cleaned out a closet with my old trading binders from over 20 years ago and was stunned by two observations. The first thing I realized was that I had been so vulnerable to believing Wall Street’s siren song of complexity. The second thing was that it was obvious my trading methodology back then was unnecessarily complicated.
To most individual investors, it seems counterintuitive when I preach my doctrine of simplicity, but it is precisely this simplicity that empowers you to outperform the professional money managers. Layer on top of that my other sermon that no one will manage your money with the same passion and commitment as you yourself and you have the magic ingredients for achieving consistent success as a stock market investor.
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Wall Street is based on its own version of Yin & Yang as opposites and contrary forces are actually interconnected and interdependent. In simplest terms, the market is made up of buyers and sellers, load and no load funds, passive and managed strategies. The complexity and simplicity paradigm is just another example. Much like life, one must decide to embrace the light or the dark, the hot or the cold, the high or low. So too, as an investor, you must choose between the dichotomies that Wall Street offers you.
I am simply sharing the experiences of my own journey as an investor. As I embraced the mantra of simplification in my investment methodology and my trading tools, my net worth grew. My relatively small basket of 10 technical indicators and the Tensile Trading approach that I’ve written so much about are living testimonials to this mantra.
Albert Einstein famously said, “If I had one hour to save the world, I would spend 55 minutes defining the problem and five minutes implementing the solution.” If you were in a life threatening situation and had only one hour before it proved fatal, what would you do? Einstein said he’d spend his time wisely asking probing questions to understand the problem in depth. Having done that, he’d only need 5 minutes to address the issue.
Many new investors I meet in my classes totally flip around Dr. Einstein’s approach. They have an unstoppable inclination to jump right into the market, metaphorically speaking. They’ll trade impulsively for the first 55 minutes and then allocate the last 5 minutes trying to figure out what just happened.
Humor me, please. Just go with this. Place your hands on the table, turn down the lights and let’s invite Albert Einstein to our séance to give us his advice. If it was indeed possible to “channel” him, I suspect he would suggest approaching the market’s first 55 minutes more like this:
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You have accumulated certain assets. Ask yourself if they are safe. Dr. Einstein would challenge you to address asset protection, first and foremost. Issues such as insurance, estate planning, identification theft, tax planning, record keeping and the like. You have to secure what you’ve got.
Next, he would ask if you had thought through personal money management questions and committed yourself to a personal trading plan in writing. It’s shocking how few investors actually do this. Einstein’s objective here would be to make certain you grasp the full scope of the problem. -
Narrative Economics
stories affect economics, look no further than the example of Bitcoin.
When the idea of Bitcoin was first introduced online in 2008 by a mysterious person under the name Satoshi Nakamoto, hype quickly grew around it. It was an entirely new system of money that had the ability to change everything we know about currency. From there, it became a global phenomenon, though partly not for the reason you’d think.
Sure, its innovation and complex mathematical theory is impressive, but what excited most people about it seemed to be the hype and mystery surrounding it. If you ask most Bitcoin investors about the actual theory that runs Bitcoin, they probably could only give you the very basics.
But ask them about what excites them about it and they’ll probably say it’s the idea of a new, revolutionary way of using currency. The way of the future. They feel that by investing in Bitcoin, they have a stake in the future, proving they are among the forward-thinkers of today.
Another narrative attached to Bitcoin is that it’s free of the control of governments and banks. This idea attracts those investors with an anarchic streak who view many modern institutions as corrupt. Because it isn’t attached to any one country, investors feel they are promoting internationalism.
In short, it is these futuristic narratives along with the mysterious founding of Bitcoin that have made it so attractive to investors, not the complex math behind it. Without the exciting story, it probably wouldn’t have succeeded as quickly as it has.
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Lesson 2: There is a lot in common with epidemics and economic narratives.
Two subjects people don’t usually compare are epidemiology, or the study of epidemics, and economics. This is a shame, because epidemiology and economics could learn a lot from each other. Epidemiologists study how diseases spread, and many of the patterns they see are similar to what economists observe.
For example, they study a disease like Ebola. They keep track of things like the rate of contagion and well as recovery and death rates. When an epidemic is quickly spreading, the contagion rate is much higher than death and recovery rates. When the epidemic starts to decline, the contagion rate falls while the recovery and death rate outnumbers new cases.
This idea can be applied to economic narratives that are contagious. The contagion of a narrative rapidly rises as people talk about it, whether through conversation in person or online. It also spreads through the news and other media. But just like an epidemic, eventually, the story slows down. People start to forget or they just lose interest and the story dies off.
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We can see this parallel when we look at the Bitcoin craze again. If you search how often news stories over the last decade said the word “Bitcoin” you can see this pattern. There was a sharp increase in 2014, and then there was another peak in 2018 before it fell again.
While this isn’t the end of the story for Bitcoin, we can see that the rapid increase and decline with secondary waves is strikingly similar to the shape of a graph of the contagion rate during an epidemic. So studying disease curves can give us a good idea of what a popular narrative might do to the market.
Lesson 3: We must understand the narratives of the past if we want to be ready for our economic future.
Clearly, narratives are important when we’re looking at the economy. This is why it’s essential that economists take these stories seriously, rather than just looking at the math, so they can more accurately predict what’s coming next.
Luckily for economists, now more than ever we are able to access data about these narratives. We can learn through market research, looking at social media, and gathering information about internet searches.
Technology can help economists to find patterns in the data. They can then use this information to predict what the prominent narratives will be and how they might affect the economy. Shiller makes a point to say it has to be done carefully and accurately if you are studying the effects of narratives on economic events.
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What good does this information do? By having a good understanding of narratives, policy-makers can help shape people’s behavior when there are times of stress.
An example of this is during the Great Depression, when President Roosevelt addressed the nation with “fireside chats.” He understood the people’s lack of confidence was part of what was keeping the economy down. In these chats, he asked people to set aside their fears and spend money. It seemed to work, too. Following each address, the markets stabilized.
If people in charge of making policy understand the narratives and take control of them, they can be active participants in what’s going on rather than just bystanders who have no control of the situation.
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Avoid emotional trading
Trading psychology describes how a trader handles generating gains and handling losses. It represents their ability to deal with risks and not deviate from their trading plan. The emotional aspects of investing will attempt to dictate your every transaction, and your ability to handle your emotions is part of your trading psychology.
It is impossible to eliminate emotions in trading, but this should not be the goal in the first place. Instead, traders should understand how certain biases or emotions can affect their trading and use this information to their advantage. Every trader is different, and there is no simple rulebook that everyone should follow.
Identify your personality traits
Develop and follow a trading plan
Have patience
Be adaptive
Take a break after a loss
Accept your winnings
Keep a trading log
Identify your personality traits
One of the keys to developing successful trading psychology is identifying your personality traits early on. You will need to be honest with yourself and say if you have impulsive tendencies or if you are prone to acting out of anger or frustration.
If this is the case, it is important to keep these traits in check while you are actively trading because they can lead you to make rash and ill-advised decisions that have little analytical backing. However, it is also important to play to your personal strengths. For instance, if you are naturally calm and calculated, you can take advantage of these personality traits during your time on the markets.
Equally as important as identifying and being aware of your personality traits and emotions is recognising your biases, as listed above. Biases are an innate aspect of human nature, but you should be aware of what your individual biases are before opening or closing any trades.
Develop and follow a trading plan
Having a trading plan is paramount to ensuring that you achieve your goals. A trading plan acts as the blueprint to your trading, and it should highlight your time commitments, your available trading funds, your risk-reward ratio and a trading strategy that you feel comfortable with.
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For instance, a trading plan could say that you were going to commit one hour every morning and evening to trading, and that you will never commit more than 2% of the total value of your portfolio to any one trade. This can help minimise losses and limit the effect of emotions on your trading as the rules for opening or closing a position are already highlighted for you.
Trading plans should also take into account individual factors that could affect your trading discipline such as your emotions, biases and personality traits. If you make clear what your biases are before you start trading, you might be less inclined to act on them.
Have patience
Patience is integral to discipline and it is crucial that you have patience with your positions. Acting on emotions like fear can lead you to miss out on a profit by closing a position too early. Trust your analysis and remain patient and disciplined. Equally, when looking to enter a trade, it is important to be patient and wait for the opportune moment rather than just jumping into a trade right then and there.
For instance, if you were wanting to speculate on some GBP currency pairs like EUR/GBP or GBP/USD, you may want to wait until just before a Bank of England (BoE) announcement as there tends to be increased volatility at this time.
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Be adaptive
While it is important to have a trading plan, remember that no two days on the markets are the same, and winning streaks don’t exist in trading. With this in mind, you should become comfortable in assessing how the markets are different from day to day and adapt accordingly.
If there is more volatility on one day compared to the day before and the markets are moving particularly unpredictably, you may decide to put your trading activity on hold until you’re sure you understand what is happening. Being adaptive can help to limit your emotions and rule out representative and status quo biases, enabling you to assess each situation on its own merits – ensuring that you are pragmatic during your time on the markets.
Take a break after a loss
Sometimes after a loss, the best thing you can do is walk away from your trading account for a short while to gather your thoughts and compose yourself – rather than rushing into another trade in an attempt to regain some of your losses.
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The best traders are those that take their losses and use them as learning opportunities. They will typically take a few minutes to themselves before going back to their platform, using this time to assess what went wrong for that particular trade in the hope that they might avoid making the same mistake in the future.
In doing so, they keep emotions like pride or fear in check by letting themselves cool off before approaching the next trade with a clear head and sound judgment.
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Trading cycle
Once identified and understood, cycles can add significant value to the technical analysis toolbox. However, they are not perfect. Some will miss, some will disappear and some will provide a direct hit. This is why it is important to use cycles in conjunction with other aspects of technical analysis. Trend establishes direction, oscillators define momentum and cycles anticipate turning points. Look for confirmation with support or resistance on the price chart or a turn in a key momentum oscillator. It can also help to combine cycles. For example, the stock market is known to have 10-week, 20-week, and 40-week cycles. These cycles can be combined with the Six Month Cycle and Presidential Cycle for added value. Signals are enhanced when multiple cycles nest at a cycle low.
A cycle is an event, such as a price high or low, which repeats itself on a regular basis. Cycles exist in the economy, in nature and in financial markets. The basic business cycle encompasses an economic downturn, bottom, economic upturn, and top. Cycles in nature include the four seasons and solar activity (11 years). Cycles are also part of technical analysis of the financial markets. Cycle theory asserts that cyclical forces, both long and short, drive price movements in the financial markets.
Price and time cycles are used to anticipate turning points. Lows are normally used to define cycle length and then project future cycle lows. Even though there is evidence that cycles do indeed exist, they tend to change over time and can even disappear for a while. While this may sound discouraging, trend is the same way. There is indeed evidence that markets trend, but not all the time. Trend disappears when markets move into a trading range and reverses when prices change direction. Cycles can also disappear and even invert. Do not expect cycle analysis to pinpoint reaction highs or lows. Instead, cycle analysis should be used in conjunction with other aspects of technical analysis to anticipate turning points.
The Perfect Cycle and stock signals
The image below shows a perfect cycle with a length of 100 days. The first peak is at 25 days and the second peak is at 125 days (125 - 25 = 100). The first cycle low is at 75 days and the second cycle low is at 175 days (also 100 days later). Notice that the cycle crosses the X-axis at 50, 100 and 150, which is every 50 points or half a cycle.
Chart 1 - Cycles
Crest: Cycle high
Trough: Cycle low
Phase: Position of the cycle at a particular point in time (the example cycle is at .95 on day 20)
Inflection Point: This is where the cycle line crosses the X-axis
Amplitude: Height of the cycle from X-axis to peak or trough
Length: Distance between cycle highs or cycle lows
Observe that this is merely a blueprint for the ideal cycle; most cycles are not this well-defined.
Cycle Characteristics
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Cycle Length: Lows are usually used to define the length of a cycle and project the cycle into the future. A cycle high can be expected somewhere between the cycle lows.
Translation: Cycles almost never peak at the exact midpoint nor trough at the expected cycle low. Most often, peaks occur before or after the midpoint of the cycle. Right translation is the tendency of prices to peak in the latter part of the cycle during bull markets. Conversely, left translation is the tendency of prices to peak in the front half of the cycle during bear markets. Prices tend to peak later in bull markets and earlier in bear markets.
Harmonics: Larger cycles can be broken down into smaller, and equal, cycles. A 40-week cycle divides into two 20-week cycles. A 20-week cycle divides into two 10-week cycles. Sometimes a larger cycle can divide into three or more parts. The inverse is also true. Small cycles can multiply into larger cycles. A 10-week cycle can be part of a larger 20-week cycle and an even larger 40-week cycle.
Nesting: forex signals A cycle low is reinforced when several cycles signal a trough at the same time. The 10-week, 20-week, and 40-week cycles are nesting when they all trough at the same time.
Inversions: Sometimes a cycle high occurs when there should be a cycle low and vice versa. This can happen when a cycle high or low is skipped or is minimal. A cycle low may be short or almost non-existent in a strong uptrend. Similarly, markets can fall fast and skip a cycle high during sharp declines. Inversions are more prominent with shorter cycles and less common with longer cycles. For instance, one could expect more inversions with a 10-week cycle than a 40-week cycle. Read more on https://www.gold-pattern.com/en -
S&P 500 Inclusion Criteria
The S&P 500 was created in 1957 and is one of the most widely quoted stock market indexes. S&P 500 stocks represent the largest publicly-traded companies in the U.S. The S&P 500 focuses on the U.S. market's large-cap sector.
An S&P 500 company must meet a broad set of criteria to be added to the index, including the following:
A total market capitalization of at least $14.6 billion
Must be a U.S. company
Must have a public float of at least 10% of its equity shares outstanding
A positive sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters of trailing earnings
Positive earnings for its most recent quarter
Must meet certain liquidity requirements
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Companies may be removed from the S&P 500 if they deviate substantially from these standards.
2
$40.3 trillion
The total combined market cap of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 as of March 31, 2022.
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S&P 500 Calculation
The S&P 500 is a free-float market capitalization-weighted index. Market capitalization (or market cap) represents the total dollar market value of a company's outstanding equity shares. Market cap is calculated by multiplying the total number of outstanding shares of stock by the company's current stock price.
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For example, a company with 20 million shares outstanding in which its stock is selling for $100 per share would have a market cap of $2 billion.
As a result, the more valuable an individual company's stock becomes, the more it contributes to the S&P 500's overall return. It is not uncommon for three-quarters of the index's return to be linked to only 50 to 75 stocks.
Therefore, the addition or subtraction of smaller companies from the index will not have a noticeable impact on the overall return of the index. However, the removal or addition of even just one of the largest stocks can have a major impact.
S&P 500 Sector Breakdown
Below are the top sectors and their weightings within the S&P 500 index as of March 31, 2022.
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S&P 500 Sector Weighting
Sector Index Weighting
Information Technology 28.0%
Health Care 13.6%
Consumer Discretionary 12.0%
Financials 11.1%
Communication Services 9.4%
Industrials 7.9%
Consumer Staples 6.1%
Energy 3.9%
Utilities 2.7%
Real Estate 2.7%
Materials 2.6%
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
Being aware of the S&P's sector weighting is important because sectors with a smaller weighting may not have a material impact on the value of the overall index—even if they're outperforming or underperforming the market.
For example, if oil prices are rising, leading to increased profits for the energy sector, those stocks represent only 3.9% of the S&P 500. As a result, oil stocks may not lead to a higher S&P if, for example, the more heavily weighted information technology sector is underperforming.
S&P 500 components are weighted by free-float market capitalization, which means that larger companies can affect the value of the index to a greater degree.
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Top 25 Components by Market Cap
Because the exact weightings of the top 25 components are not available from S&P directly, the weightings below are from the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY). SPY is the oldest exchange traded fund (ETF) that tracks the S&P 500 and holds over $419 million in assets under management (AUM) and is highly traded.
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As a result, the SPY's portfolio weightings provide a good proxy for investing in the underlying S&P 500 index, although the two may not be exactly the same. As of April 1, 2022, the following are the 25 largest S&P 500 index constituents by weight:
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Apple (AAPL): 7.14%
Microsoft (MSFT): 6.1%
Amazon (AMZN): 3.8%
Tesla (TSLA): 2.5%
Alphabet Class A (GOOGL): 2.2%
Alphabet Class C (GOOG): 2.1%
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): 1.8%
Berkshire Hathaway Class B (BRK.B): 1.7%
Meta (META), formerly Facebook, Class A: 1.4%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH): 1.2%
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): 1.2%
JPMorgan Chase (JPM): 1.0%
Visa Class A (V): 1.0%
Procter & Gamble (PG): 1.0%
Exxon Mobil (XOM): 0.90%
Home Depot (HD): 0.8%
Chevron Corporation (CVX): 0.80%
Mastercard Inc. Class A (MA): 0.8%
Bank of America (BAC): 0.8%
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV): 0.7%
Pfizer (PFE): 0.7%
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): 0.7%
Costco (COST): 0.7%
Walt Disney (DIS): 0.7%
Coca-Cola Company (KO): 0.6%
How Many Companies Are in the S&P 500?
There are 500 companies within the S&P 500 index. However, there are 505 stocks since some companies have multiple classes of equity shares, such as Alphabet and Berkshire Hathaway.
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What Are the Top 10 Holdings in the S&P 500?
As of April 1, 2022, the top ten holdings and their weighting in the index are:
Apple (AAPL): 7.14%
Microsoft (MSFT): 6.1%
Amazon (AMZN): 3.8%
Tesla (TSLA): 2.5%
Alphabet Class A (GOOGL): 2.2%
Alphabet Class C (GOOG): 2.1%
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): 1.8%
Berkshire Hathaway Class B (BRK.B): 1.6%
Meta (META), formerly Facebook, Class A: 1.4%
UnitedHealth Group (UNH): 1.2%
How Are Companies Selected for the S&P 500?
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Behaviorist
Main articles: Behaviorism, Psychological behaviorism, and Radical behaviorism
Skinner's teaching machine, a mechanical invention to automate the task of programmed instruction
A tenet of behavioral research is that a large part of both human and lower-animal behavior is learned. A principle associated with behavioral research is that the mechanisms involved in learning apply to humans and non-human animals. Behavioral researchers have developed a treatment known as behavior modification, which is used to help individuals replace undesirable behaviors with desirable ones.
The film of the Little Albert experiment
Early behavioral researchers studied stimulus–response pairings, now known as classical conditioning. They demonstrated that when a biologically potent stimulus (e.g., food that elicits salivation) is paired with a previously neutral stimulus (e.g., a bell) over several learning trials, the neutral stimulus by itself can come to elicit the response the biologically potent stimulus elicits. Ivan Pavlov—known best for inducing dogs to salivate in the presence of a stimulus previously linked with food—became a leading figure in the Soviet Union and inspired followers to use his methods on humans.[35] In the United States, Edward Lee Thorndike initiated "connectionist" studies by trapping animals in "puzzle boxes" and rewarding them for escaping. Thorndike wrote in 1911, "There can be no moral warrant for studying man's nature unless the study will enable us to control his acts."[27]: 212–5 From 1910 to 1913 the American Psychological Association went through a sea change of opinion, away from mentalism and towards "behavioralism." In 1913, John B. Watson coined the term behaviorism for this school of thought.[27]: 218–27 Watson's famous Little Albert experiment in 1920 was at first thought to demonstrate that repeated use of upsetting loud noises could instill phobias (aversions to other stimuli) in an infant human,[12][75] although such a conclusion was likely an exaggeration.[76] Karl Lashley, a close collaborator with Watson, examined biological manifestations of learning in the brain.[67]
Clark L. Hull, Edwin Guthrie, and others did much to help behaviorism become a widely used paradigm.[33] A new method of "instrumental" or "operant" conditioning added the concepts of reinforcement and punishment to the model of behavior change. Radical behaviorists avoided discussing the inner workings of the mind, especially the unconscious mind, which they considered impossible to assess scientifically.[77] Operant conditioning was first described by Miller and Kanorski and popularized in the U.S. by B.F. Skinner, who emerged as a leading intellectual of the behaviorist movement.
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Noam Chomsky published an influential critique of radical behaviorism on the grounds that behaviorist principles could not adequately explain the complex mental process of language acquisition and language use.[80][81] The review, which was scathing, did much to reduce the status of behaviorism within psychology.[27]: 282–5 Martin Seligman and his colleagues discovered that they could condition in dogs a state of "learned helplessness", which was not predicted by the behaviorist approach to psychology.[82][83] Edward C. Tolman advanced a hybrid "cognitive behavioral" model, most notably with his 1948 publication discussing the cognitive maps used by rats to guess at the location of food at the end of a maze.[84] Skinner's behaviorism did not die, in part because it generated successful practical applications.
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The Association for Behavior Analysis International was founded in 1974 and by 2003 had members from 42 countries. The field has gained a foothold in Latin America and Japan.[85] Applied behavior analysis is the term used for the application of the principles of operant conditioning to change socially significant behavior (it supersedes the term, "behavior modification").
Boundaries
Early practitioners of experimental psychology distinguished themselves from parapsychology, which in the late nineteenth century enjoyed popularity (including the interest of scholars such as William James). Some people considered parapsychology to be part of "psychology." Parapsychology, hypnotism, and psychism were major topics at the early International Congresses. But students of these fields were eventually ostracized, and more or less banished from the Congress in 1900–1905.[31] Parapsychology persisted for a time at Imperial University in Japan, with publications such as Clairvoyance and Thoughtography by Tomokichi Fukurai, but it was mostly shunned by 1913.[32]
As a discipline, psychology has long sought to fend off accusations that it is a "soft" science. Philosopher of science Thomas Kuhn's 1962 critique implied psychology overall was in a pre-paradigm state, lacking agreement on the type of overarching theory found in mature sciences such as chemistry and physics.[61] Because some areas of psychology rely on research methods such as surveys and questionnaires, critics asserted that psychology is not an objective science. Skeptics have suggested that personality, thinking, and emotion cannot be directly measured and are often inferred from subjective self-reports, which may be problematic. Experimental psychologists have devised a variety of ways to indirectly measure these elusive phenomenological entities.
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Divisions still exist within the field, with some psychologists more oriented towards the unique experiences of individual humans, which cannot be understood only as data points within a larger population. Critics inside and outside the field have argued that mainstream psychology has become increasingly dominated by a "cult of empiricism," which limits the scope of research because investigators restrict themselves to methods derived from the physical sciences.[65]: 36–7 Feminist critiques have argued that claims to scientific objectivity obscure the values and agenda of (historically) mostly male researchers.[37] Jean Grimshaw, for example, argues that mainstream psychological research has advanced a patriarchal agenda through its efforts to control behavior
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Existential-humanistic
Psychologist Abraham Maslow in 1943 posited that humans have a hierarchy of needs, and it makes sense to fulfill the basic needs first (food, water etc.) before higher-order needs can be met.[103]
Humanistic psychology, which has been influenced by existentialism and phenomenology,[104] stresses free will and self-actualization.[105] It emerged in the 1950s as a movement within academic psychology, in reaction to both behaviorism and psychoanalysis.[106] The humanistic approach seeks to view the whole person, not just fragmented parts of the personality or isolated cognitions.[107] Humanistic psychology also focuses on personal growth, self-identity, death, aloneness, and freedom. It emphasizes subjective meaning, the rejection of determinism, and concern for positive growth rather than pathology. Some founders of the humanistic school of thought were American psychologists Abraham Maslow, who formulated a hierarchy of human needs, and Carl Rogers, who created and developed client-centered therapy.
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Later, positive psychology opened up humanistic themes to scientific study. Positive psychology is the study of factors which contribute to human happiness and well-being, focusing more on people who are currently healthy. In 2010, Clinical Psychological Review published a special issue devoted to positive psychological interventions, such as gratitude journaling and the physical expression of gratitude. It is, however, far from clear that positive psychology is effective in making people happier.[108][109] Positive psychological interventions have been limited in scope, but their effects are thought to be somewhat better than placebo effects. The evidence, however, is far from clear that interventions based on positive psychology increase human happiness or resilience.[108][109]
Humanistic psychology is primarily an orientation toward the whole of psychology rather than a distinct area or school. It stands for respect for the worth of persons, respect for differences of approach, open-mindedness as to acceptable methods, and interest in exploration of new aspects of human behavior. As a "third force" in contemporary psychology, it is concerned with topics having little place in existing theories and systems: e.g., love, creativity, self, growth, organism, basic need-gratification, self-actualization, higher values, being, becoming, spontaneity, play, humor, affection, naturalness, warmth, ego-transcendence, objectivity, autonomy, responsibility, meaning, fair-play, transcendental experience, peak experience, courage, and related concepts.
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Existential psychology emphasizes the need to understand a client's total orientation towards the world. Existential psychology is opposed to reductionism, behaviorism, and other methods that objectify the individual.[105] In the 1950s and 1960s, influenced by philosophers Søren Kierkegaard and Martin Heidegger, psychoanalytically trained American psychologist Rollo May helped to develop existential psychology. Existential psychotherapy, which follows from existential psychology, is a therapeutic approach that is based on the idea that a person's inner conflict arises from that individual's confrontation with the givens of existence. Swiss psychoanalyst Ludwig Binswanger and American psychologist George Kelly may also be said to belong to the existential school.[111] Existential psychologists tend to differ from more "humanistic" psychologists in the former's relatively neutral view of human nature and relatively positive assessment of anxiety.[112] Existential psychologists emphasized the humanistic themes of death, free will, and meaning, suggesting that meaning can be shaped by myths and narratives; meaning can be deepened by the acceptance of free will, which is requisite to living an authentic life, albeit often with anxiety with regard to death.
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Personality
Personality psychology is concerned with enduring patterns of behavior, thought, and emotion. Theories of personality vary across different psychological schools of thought. Each theory carries different assumptions about such features as the role of the unconscious and the importance of childhood experience. According to Freud, personality is based on the dynamic interactions of the id, ego, and super-ego.[116] By contrast, trait theorists have developed taxonomies of personality constructs
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Psychological Traps
1. Anchoring Trap
First, there is the so-called anchoring trap, which refers to an over-reliance on what one originally thinks. Imagine betting on a boxing match and choosing the fighter purely by who has thrown the most punches in their last five fights. You may come out all right by picking the statistically more-active fighter, but the fighter with the least punches may have won five bouts by first-round knockouts. Clearly, any metric can become meaningless when it is taken out of context.
For instance, if you think of a certain company as successful, you may be too confident that its stocks are a good bet. This preconception may be totally incorrect in the prevailing situation or at some point in the future.
Take, for example, electronics retailer Radio Shack. Once a thriving seller of personal electronics and gadgets in the 1980s and 1990s, the chain was crushed by online retailers such as Amazon (AMZN). Those trapped in the perception that Radio Shack was there to stay lost a lot of money as the company filed for bankruptcy multiple times and shrinking from its heyday size of 7,300 stores to 70 outlets by the end of 2017.1
In order to avoid this trap, you need to remain flexible in your thinking and open to new sources of information, while understanding the reality that any company can be here today and gone tomorrow. Any manager can disappear too, for that matter.
#2. Sunk Cost Trap
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The sunk cost trap is just as dangerous. This is about psychologically (but not in reality) protecting your previous choices or decisions — which is often disastrous for your investments. It is truly hard to take a loss and/or accept that you made the wrong choices or allowed someone else to make them for you. But if your investment is no good, or sinking fast, the sooner you get out of it and into something more promising, the better.
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If you clung to stocks that you bought in 1999 at the height of the dot.com boom, you would have had to wait a decade to break even, and that is for non-technology stocks.2 It's far better not to cling to the sunk cost and to get into other assets classes that are moving up fast. Emotional commitment to bad investments just makes things worse.
#3. Confirmation Trap
Similarly, in the confirmation trap, people often seek out others who have made and are still making, the same mistake. Make sure you get objective advice from fresh sources, rather than consulting the person who gave you the bad advice in the first place. If you find yourself saying something like, "Our stocks have dropped by 30 percent, but it’s surely best just to hang onto them, isn’t it?" then you are seeking confirmation from some other unfortunate investor in the same situation. You can comfort each other in the short run, but it’s just self-delusion.
#4. Blindness Trap
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Situational blindness can exacerbate the situation. Even people who are not specifically seeking confirmation often just shut out the prevailing market realities in order to do nothing and postpone the evil day when the losses just have to be confronted.
If you know deep down that there is a problem with your investments, such as a major scandal at the company or market warnings, but you read everything online except for the financial headlines, then you are probably suffering from this blinder effect.
#5. Relativity Trap
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The relativity trap is also there waiting to lead you astray. Everyone has a different psychological make-up, combined with a unique set of circumstances extending to work, family, career prospects and likely inheritances. This means that although you need to be aware of what others are doing and saying, their situation and views are not necessarily relevant outside their own context.
"I think a lot of people tend to equate their self worth with their income, or they think that social media, these days puts pressure on people to make it look like they're doing better than they are. And because of that, people feel bad," said Amy Morin, Verywell Mind’s editor-in-chief. "We look at somebody else who has a new car or somebody else whose house looks beautiful and think, 'Oh, why don't I have that?' And those emotions that get stirred up, I think for a lot of people are really difficult. Then how do you decide what you really value in life and what's most important?"
Be aware, but beware too! You must invest for yourself and only in your own context. Your friends may have both the money and the risk-friendliness to speculate in pork belly futures (as in the movie Trading Places), but if you are a modest earning and nervy person, this is not for you.
#6. Irrational Exuberance Trap
When investors start believing that the past equals the future, they are acting as if there is no uncertainty in the market. Unfortunately, uncertainty never vanishes.
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Common Retracements
The Fibonacci Retracements Tool at StockCharts shows four common retracements: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. From the Fibonacci section above, it is clear that 23.6%, 38.2%, and 61.8% stem from ratios found within the Fibonacci sequence. The 50% retracement is not based on a Fibonacci number. Instead, this number stems from Dow Theory's assertion that the Averages often retrace half their prior move.
Based on depth, we can consider a 23.6% retracement to be relatively shallow. Such retracements would be appropriate for flags or short pullbacks. Retracements in the 38.2%-50% range would be considered moderate. Even though deeper, the 61.8% retracement can be referred to as the golden retracement. It is, after all, based on the Golden Ratio.
Shallow retracements occur, but catching these requires a closer watch and quicker trigger finger. The examples below use daily charts covering 3-9 months. Focus will be on moderate retracements (38.2-50%) and golden retracements (61.8%). In addition, these examples will show how to combine retracements with other indicators to confirm a reversal.
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Fibonacci retracements are often used to identify the end of a correction or a counter-trend bounce. Corrections and counter-trend bounces often retrace a portion of the prior move. While short 23.6% retracements do occur, the 38.2-61.8% zone covers the most possibilities (with 50% in the middle). This zone may seem big, but it is just a reversal alert zone. Other technical signals are needed to confirm a reversal. Reversals can be confirmed with candlesticks, momentum indicators, volume or chart patterns. In fact, the more confirming factors, the more robust the signal.
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Fibonacci Retracements are ratios used to identify potential reversal levels. These ratios are found in the Fibonacci sequence. The most popular Fibonacci Retracements are 61.8% and 38.2%. Note that 38.2% is often rounded to 38% and 61.8 is rounded to 62%. After an advance, chartists apply Fibonacci ratios to define retracement levels and forecast the extent of a correction or pullback. Fibonacci Retracements can also be applied after a decline to forecast the length of a counter-trend bounce. These retracements can be combined with other indicators and price patterns to create an overall strategy.
The Sequence and Ratios
This article is not designed to delve too deep into the mathematical properties behind the Fibonacci sequence and Golden Ratio. There are plenty of other sources for this detail. A few basics, however, will provide the necessary background for the most popular numbers. Leonardo Pisano Bogollo (1170-1250), an Italian mathematician from Pisa, is credited with introducing the Fibonacci sequence to the West. It is as follows:
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610……
The sequence extends to infinity and contains many unique mathematical properties.
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After 0 and 1, each number is the sum of the two prior numbers (1+2=3, 2+3=5, 5+8=13 8+13=21 etc…).
A number divided by the previous number approximates 1.618 (21/13=1.6153, 34/21=1.6190, 55/34=1.6176, 89/55=1.6181). The approximation nears 1.6180 as the numbers increase.
A number divided by the next highest number approximates .6180 (13/21=.6190, 21/34=.6176, 34/55=.6181, 55/89=.6179 etc….). The approximation nears .6180 as the numbers increase. This is the basis for the 61.8% retracement.
A number divided by another two places higher approximates .3820 (13/34=.382, 21/55=.3818, 34/89=.3820, 55/=144=3819 etc….). The approximation nears .3820 as the numbers increase. This is the basis for the 38.2% retracement. Also, note that 1 - .618 = .382
A number divided by another three places higher approximates .2360 (13/55=.2363, 21/89=.2359, 34/144=.2361, 55/233=.2361 etc….). The approximation nears .2360 as the numbers increase. This is the basis for the 23.6% retracement.
1.618 refers to the Golden Ratio or Golden Mean, also called Phi. The inverse of 1.618 is .618. These ratios can be found throughout nature, architecture, art, and biology. In his book, Elliott Wave Principle, Robert Prechter quotes William Hoffer from the December 1975 issue of Smithsonian Magazine:
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….the proportion of .618034 to 1 is the mathematical basis for the shape of playing cards and the Parthenon, sunflowers and snail shells, Greek vases and the spiral galaxies of outer space. The Greeks based much of their art and architecture upon this proportion. They called it the golden mean.
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What Is a Technical Indicator?
A technical indicator is a series of data points that are derived by applying a formula to the price data of a security. Price data includes any combination of the open, high, low or close over a period of time. Some indicators may use only the closing prices, while others incorporate volume and open interest into their formulas. The price data is entered into the formula and a data point is produced. For example, the average of 3 closing prices is one data point [ (41+43+43) / 3 = 42.33 ].
However, one data point does not offer much information and does not make for a useful indicator. A series of data points over a period of time is required to create valid reference points to enable analysis. By creating a time series of data points, a comparison can be made between present and past levels. For analysis purposes, technical indicators are usually shown in a graphical form above or below a security's price chart. Once shown in graphical form, an indicator can then be compared with the corresponding price chart of the security. Sometimes indicators are plotted on top of the price plot for a more direct comparison.
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What Does a Technical Indicator Offer?
A technical indicator offers a different perspective from which to analyze the price action. Some, such as moving averages, are derived from simple formulas and the mechanics are relatively easy to understand. Others, such as Stochastics, have complex formulas and require more study to fully understand and appreciate. Regardless of the complexity of the formula, technical indicators can provide a unique perspective on the strength and direction of the underlying price action.
A simple moving average is an indicator that calculates the average price of a security over a specified number of periods. If a security is exceptionally volatile, then a moving average will help to smooth the data. A moving average filters out random noise and offers a smoother perspective of the price action. Veritas (VRTSE) displays a lot of volatility and an analyst may have difficulty discerning a trend. By applying a 10-day simple moving average to the price action, random fluctuations are smoothed to make it easier to identify a trend.
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Why Use Indicators?
Indicators serve three broad functions: to alert, to confirm and to predict.
An indicator can act as an alert to study price action a little more closely. If momentum is waning, it may be a signal to watch for a break of support. Alternatively, if there is a large positive divergence building, it may serve as an alert to watch for a resistance breakout.
Indicators can be used to confirm other technical analysis tools. If there is a breakout on the price chart, a corresponding moving average crossover could serve to confirm the breakout. If a stock breaks support, a corresponding low in the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) could serve to confirm the weakness.
According to some investors and traders, indicators can be used to predict the direction of future prices.
Tips for Using Indicators
Indicators indicate. This may sound straightforward, but sometimes traders ignore the price action of a security and focus solely on an indicator. Indicators filter price action with formulas. As such, they are derivatives and not direct reflections of the price action. This should be taken into consideration when applying analysis. Any analysis of an indicator should be taken with the price action in mind. What is the indicator saying about the price action of a security? Is the price action getting stronger? Weaker?
Even though it may be obvious when indicators generate buy and sell signals, the signals should be taken in context with other technical analysis tools. An indicator may flash a buy signal, but if the chart pattern shows a descending triangle with a series of declining peaks, it may be a false signal.
On the Rambus (RMBS) chart, MACD improved from November to March, forming a positive divergence. All the earmarks of a MACD buying opportunity were present, but the stock failed to break above the resistance and exceed its previous reaction high. This non-confirmation from the stock should have served as a warning sign against a long position. For the record, a sell signal occurred when the stock broke support from the descending triangle in March-01.
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As always in technical analysis, learning how to read indicators is more of an art than a science. The same indicator may exhibit different behavioral patterns when applied to different stocks. Indicators that work well for IBM might not work the same for Delta Airlines. Through careful study and analysis, expertise with the various indicators will develop over time. As this expertise develops, certain nuances, as well as favorite setups, will become clear.
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